Jiang Zhuoer: The CLARITY Act has only a 10% to 20% chance of passing, with major disagreements on ethical provisions persisting between the two parties.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.TOP, stated in a post that the Clarity Act has only a 10% to 20% chance of passing, with major disagreements persisting solely on its ethics provisions. The proposal agreed by Trump only restricts the president and their spouse from engaging in crypto asset issuance, while Democrats demand including other family members and family entities in the restrictions. The two sides also failed to reach an agreement on law enforcement authority: Trump supports the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) being responsible for prosecuting violations, but Democrats argue the Attorney General is appointed by the president and demand granting state attorneys general the right to prosecute as well. Jiang believes that fully accepting the Democrats’ proposed restrictions would leave Trump with little incentive to sign the bill. Apart from the ethics provisions, multiple disagreements also exist in other parts of the legislation. The U.S. Congress will adjourn on August 7, with only around 10 working days remaining, leaving the procedural timeline extremely tight and making it difficult to bridge major divides before adjournment. He added that Congress’s session from September 14 to October 5 falls near the midterm elections, and lawmakers must also handle budget and appropriations agendas, with even a potential government shutdown risk. Democrats also lack the political incentive to push the bill through before the elections.