World Cup Ignites Prediction Markets: Sideline Ad Exposure Boosts Kalshi’s Lead Over Polymarket, Duopoly Controls Over 95% of Market Share

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has emerged as a watershed moment for the prediction market industry. According to statistics from BlockBeats, Kalshi’s total platform trading volume during the World Cup reached $54.338 billion, roughly 2.6 times Polymarket’s $20.988 billion. World Cup-related event trading volume stood at $13.591 billion, around 31% higher than Polymarket’s $10.356 billion. In terms of user growth, Kalshi’s app downloads hit 5.368 million, far outpacing Polymarket’s 2.136 million. The exposure effect of Kalshi’s stadium sideline ads is widely viewed as a key driver behind its widening lead. While Polymarket leads in website traffic with 57.44 million visits, it failed to translate this into equivalent advantages in trading volume and app downloads. For other platforms: Predict.fun recorded total trading volume of $1.092 billion, with World Cup-related volume at $886 million; Opinion’s total volume was $1.137 billion, of which World Cup-related activity was approximately $561 million; Limitless had total volume of $446 million, with World Cup-related volume around $220 million. From the data landscape, Kalshi and Polymarket have formed a duopoly, together accounting for over 95% of the total market share. Smaller platforms still face an order-of-magnitude gap in absolute scale. The World Cup’s "Super Bowl effect" on prediction markets is pronounced—during the event, industry concentration further increased, and brand exposure and user acquisition efficiency are becoming core variables shaping the next stage of the competitive landscape.