US-Iran Conflict Remains Restrained and Rational; Israel May Intervene Deeply in Three Scenarios.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have reignited and persisted for several days, though both sides have so far remained restrained and rational. U.S. operations have focused primarily on targets linked to the Strait of Hormuz, while launching limited strikes on "soft" national infrastructure such as bridges and railways. Iran has responded by targeting U.S. assets in the region, including sites in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, but has not directly attacked Israel for now. The two sides have maintained an unspoken truce: the U.S. avoids hitting Iran’s core national infrastructure, and Iran has not expanded its actions to Israeli territory. Analysts say there is no clear timeline for when the current conflict will end. However, three main factors could drive Israel’s involvement in the future: First, the U.S. expanding its strike scope. If U.S. forces attack Iran’s nuclear facilities or ballistic missile programs—including the previously unmentioned key target Pickaxe Mountain—it could prompt Iran to widen its retaliation. Second, the two sides could escalate the conflict due to miscalculation. Either Israel or Iran might attempt to seize an advantage through sudden actions, triggering a larger-scale confrontation. Third, Israel could proactively seize a military opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile capabilities, to fulfill the unachieved military objectives of Operation "Roaring Lion". Analysts note that Iran currently has no intention of dragging Israel into the conflict on its own initiative, as it is well aware of the military capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and its air force. It is widely believed that the rivalry between Iran, the U.S., and regional countries will continue, with this being just another phase in the long-term strategic game.