Hyperliquid's TSMC contract rallied then pulled back, dropping over 4% intraday.

Counterpoint Research Director Hwang Minsung noted that a 15% global DRAM market share is the benchmark for CXMT’s (ChangXin Memory Technologies) long-term survival—falling below this level would repeat the 2008 fate of Taiwanese DRAM makers, which slid to a 3% share due to their inability to cover next-generation factory investments. Currently, CXMT’s global DRAM bit shipment market share stands at around 9%, with a target to lift it to 11% by 2028. Funds raised from this IPO will go toward next-generation G5 process technology, HBM3 high-bandwidth memory R&D, and capacity expansion. The company plans to increase monthly production capacity from the current 320,000 wafers to 420,000 by 2027, double that by 2030, and triple it by 2035; LPDDR5 and DDR5 are projected to make up roughly 75% of total output, and PC and server DRAM have already begun shipping to global customers. Counterpoint identified four key variables to monitor post-IPO: HBM mass production yield and revenue ramp-up progress (boosted by Huawei Ascend AI chip expansion, HBM revenue potential is around $2 billion by 2028); ability to secure large-scale procurement contracts from major global clients outside China (Apple supply still depends on approval); potential additional equipment export controls triggered by escalating trade tensions; and whether it can reach 20% bit market share and 15% revenue market share respectively in the medium to long term. Neil Shah pointed out that while U.S. equipment export restrictions on CXMT pose constraints, “ironically, this may instead push CXMT to outperform traditional industry giants in differentiated technology paths such as vertical channel transistors and wafer-to-wafer bonding—these giants often delay technological innovation to protect their existing equipment investment returns.”

The U.S. Senate passed a resolution by unanimous consent on Wednesday, stating that FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried should not receive a presidential pardon or commutation "under any circumstances." The non-binding resolution was jointly introduced by two leaders of the Digital Assets Subcommittee of the Senate Banking Committee: Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming and Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona. Lummis, one of the crypto industry’s most staunch supporters in Congress who has spent years pushing for legislative frameworks for the sector, explicitly advocated for keeping SBF detained in this case. Gallego’s statement ended simply: “Let him stay in prison.” Under his current sentence, SBF will not be eligible for release until around 2044.

South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) has announced regulatory measures targeting single-stock leveraged ETFs, including raising the minimum margin requirement for chip-focused leveraged ETFs. The minimum margin will be lifted from 10 million won to 30 million won, with only cash eligible as margin; each single-stock leveraged trade is capped at 20 shares per order. The country will also prohibit the listing of new single-stock leveraged products.

TSMC said its capital expenditure over the next three years will be significantly higher than the past three, with full-year capex projected at $60–$64 billion, up from prior guidance of $52–$56 billion. The chipmaker also plans to add $100 billion in investment in Arizona, U.S. Earlier market data showed TSMC-related contracts on Hyperliquid spiked intraday before pulling back, with losses widening to over 4% at one point, now trading down 3.6%. Today, TSMC released Q2 2026 financial results: net profit rose 77% year-over-year to NT$706.6 billion, hitting a record high and beating market expectations; Q2 revenue grew 36% YoY to NT$1.27 trillion, while high-performance computing (HPC) business revenue rose 20% quarter-over-quarter.

China's domestic leading memory chip maker Changxin Technology opened subscription today, eyeing to become the world's third-largest DRAM supplier. Institutional forecasts put the online subscription winning rate at 0.30% to 0.70%, with a neutral mainstream expectation of around 0.45%—10 to 20 times the 0.02% to 0.05% winning rate of average STAR Market new shares, leading to a "broad-based subscription" scenario. The core reason for the sharp rise in winning rates is that a large portion of strategic placements has been allocated to retail online channels, with the online issuance volume hitting a new high in STAR Market history. Calculated based on the neutral 0.45% winning rate, an average daily market value of RMB 200,000 in Shanghai Stock Exchange assets will yield around 40 allocation numbers, giving a single account an ~18% chance of winning a share. An average daily market value of RMB 1 million will theoretically almost guarantee at least one winning lot, while a maximum subscription of RMB 16.72 million will likely result in around 15 winning lots. This "broad-based subscription" IPO window is relatively rare in STAR Market history, with retail investors' winning probability significantly higher than any popular new share in recent years. However, it should be noted that all current figures are broker forecasts, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange will release the official winning rate announcement after the market closes on July 17. Key timeline points: Winning numbers will be announced on July 20, and investors must have sufficient funds in their accounts to complete payment by 16:00 that day. Each winning lot (500 shares) corresponds to a payment of RMB 4,330, with institutional estimates putting the profit per winning lot at around RMB 3,000 to RMB 26,000.

Chinese domestic storage chip leader Changxin Technology (CXMT) opened share subscriptions today. According to Hyperinsight, the Pre-IPO contract price of CXMT (Changxin Memory, whose listed entity is Changxin Technology) on Hyperliquid is currently at $7.26, corresponding to a RMB share price of 48.6 yuan. Calculated based on the post-issuance total share capital of 66.881 billion shares, the on-chain implied market cap is approximately $485.5 billion, equivalent to around RMB 3.3 trillion. Using this market cap as a reference, retail investors who win the allotment in today's online subscription will face a subscription cost of 4,330 yuan per lot (500 shares), with an estimated market value of 24,300 yuan for 500 shares on the first trading day, translating to a profit of roughly 20,000 yuan per lot.