Tom Lee forecasts U.S. stocks will strengthen in July, with the S&P 500 potentially rising to 8,000 points this year.

Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine—the largest Ethereum treasury—told CNBC in an interview that he expects U.S. stocks will perform stronger in July, citing more reasonable market valuations and investor sentiment that has not turned overly bullish. July will kick off the second-quarter earnings season, with first-quarter corporate earnings coming in notably better than expected. The current market price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is roughly 1.1 percentage points lower than it was in January. Lee forecasts second-quarter earnings will again exceed estimates, pushing valuations down further and creating room for P/E expansion, leading him to conclude July will be a month of stronger stock performance. On whether the S&P 500 can hit 8,000 points this year, Lee said the target is achievable. He noted 8,000 points roughly corresponds to $400 in 2026 earnings per share (EPS) and a ~20x P/E ratio, but added he views current EPS estimates as too low, with the P/E multiple potentially reaching 22x or higher—implying upside could even hit 8,400 to 8,800 points by year-end. That said, Lee also warned the market could see a correction "that feels like a bear market" between August and October, not July. Many fund managers have underperformed benchmarks this year; only 23% have beaten the Nasdaq Growth Index, the lowest level in nearly five years, so July may bring significant dip-buying demand. Lee added the February-April pullback, though just ~7%, already felt like a bear market, while later this year, factors like the Fed’s new policy framework and SpaceX’s gradual stock unlocks could test the market.