Galaxy Research cuts the probability of the CLARITY Act being passed in 2026 to 50%.
2 hours ago
According to Galaxy Research’s latest report, due to the ongoing compression of the U.S. Senate’s legislative schedule, the probability that the U.S. CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act) will be enacted into law by 2026 has been cut to 50% from 60% three weeks ago. The report points out that while the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee review in May and was added to the Senate’s legislative calendar, it has yet to form a unified text between the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee, nor has a full Senate vote timeline been finalized. Galaxy Research notes that for the bill to be considered before Congress’s August recess, the Senate Majority Leader must schedule a vote by early July at the latest; otherwise, the legislative process will likely be delayed until September, impacted by midterm election political factors. Meanwhile, the 2027 fiscal year National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and other priority agendas are also continuously taking up Senate voting time. Furthermore, key provisions of the bill remain contentious, including conflict-of-interest clauses and developer protection provisions in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), requiring additional bipartisan support. If a unified bill text is released, major disputes are resolved, and a July vote is formally scheduled in the coming weeks, the bill’s passage probability is expected to rebound above 60%; if no substantial progress is made by mid-July, the passage probability could decline further.
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