Robinhood’s prediction market revenue is expected to surpass its cryptocurrency revenue in the second quarter.

According to Galaxy Research’s latest report, due to the ongoing compression of the U.S. Senate’s legislative schedule, the probability that the U.S. CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act) will be enacted into law by 2026 has been cut to 50% from 60% three weeks ago. The report points out that while the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee review in May and was added to the Senate’s legislative calendar, it has yet to form a unified text between the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee, nor has a full Senate vote timeline been finalized. Galaxy Research notes that for the bill to be considered before Congress’s August recess, the Senate Majority Leader must schedule a vote by early July at the latest; otherwise, the legislative process will likely be delayed until September, impacted by midterm election political factors. Meanwhile, the 2027 fiscal year National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and other priority agendas are also continuously taking up Senate voting time. Furthermore, key provisions of the bill remain contentious, including conflict-of-interest clauses and developer protection provisions in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), requiring additional bipartisan support. If a unified bill text is released, major disputes are resolved, and a July vote is formally scheduled in the coming weeks, the bill’s passage probability is expected to rebound above 60%; if no substantial progress is made by mid-July, the passage probability could decline further.

UBS raised TSMC’s target price from NT$3,000 to NT$3,400, while maintaining its "buy" rating on the chipmaker. The Swiss bank also lifted its 2026 sales growth forecast for TSMC, noting that its growth momentum is expected to persist for several years ahead.

According to a new study released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), AI is poised to break the pattern where traditional technological revolutions only boost labor productivity, and could reshape long-term economic growth trajectories by enhancing knowledge creation capabilities. The study identifies four potential future scenarios for AI: status quo, limited productivity gains, demand bottleneck, and transformative AI. If AI can continuously improve its own capabilities, both economic growth rates and natural interest rates are expected to rise significantly above historical levels. However, AI development will not necessarily accelerate indefinitely. As automation continues to replace labor, the share of labor income may decline, and consumer demand may struggle to keep pace with expanding production capacity. If enterprises perceive insufficient future market demand, they may reduce ongoing investments in AI innovation and automation, leaving technological progress constrained by demand rather than technology itself. The BIS notes that under this "demand bottleneck" scenario, insufficient final demand will become the primary constraint on long-term economic growth, while the long-term impact of AI will still depend on multiple factors including technological breakthroughs, income distribution, and demand evolution.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, an address (0x9311) on Hyperliquid holds a heavily leveraged long position on Bitcoin. Currently, it has opened a 40x long position of approximately 272.7 BTC, with a nominal value of around $16.3 million, at an average entry price of roughly $60,519, and a liquidation price of $57,640. Bitcoin is currently trading at $59,720, and this long position has an unrealized loss of about $210,000 (-50%). The whale’s liquidation line is only ~3.5% (roughly $2,085) away from the current price, making it the BTC address with the closest liquidation level among all whales holding tens of millions in positions on Hyperliquid. If Bitcoin falls another ~3.5% from current levels, breaking below $57,640 (the $58,000 threshold), this $16.3 million long position will trigger forced liquidation. Amid Bitcoin’s continued weakness in recent trading, the address added to its losing position to average down its entry cost. The latest addition occurred on June 29, when it opened additional long positions at $59,347; the position has been gradually built up since June 24 via thousands of trades. HyperInsight Bot is now live. Add @HyperInsightBot to your TG group and set it as an admin (enable message sending permission) to automatically sync on-chain news.

According to Hyperinsight’s monitoring, the DRAM index tracking spot memory prices has corrected from its high amid spillover from South Korean storage sector sell-offs, falling around 6% in 4 hours and currently trading at $70.68. A large whale (0x7b5) on the Hyperliquid platform opened a position at the start of the month, entering a long position with 20x leverage and adding to it via rolling positions, resulting in its liquidation price hanging above the average entry price. The liquidation line stands at $68, only about 3.8% (roughly $2.7) away from the current price, with a position size of $5.2 million. Among on-chain large positions on the platform, the average entry price of long positions is around $70.12, while that of short positions is approximately $68.35. The notional size of short positions is roughly 2.35 times that of long positions, indicating an overall bearish sentiment. The largest short is the "Storage Chain Short Main Force" (0x4e23), which is shorting the entire storage chain (including Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital). It holds a $14.29 million DRAM short position with 6x leverage (average entry price: $77.73, opened on June 24), with an unrealized profit of $1.47 million as of now.

Robinhood’s prediction market platform business is growing rapidly, with the firm’s annual run rate revenue reaching $500 million, according to Steven Quirk, the company’s chief brokerage officer. For the second quarter ended June 25, Robinhood’s active contract trading volume hit roughly 12.3 billion contracts. At a standard rate of 1 cent per contract, the prediction market revenue for the quarter is projected to be at least $1.23 million. Its recently launched Rothera prediction market platform generated over 900 million trades in its first week, driving nearly 60% growth in Robinhood’s active contract trading volume. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency trading volume has declined due to weak institutional activity, with second-quarter crypto revenue expected to come in below $134 million. Prediction market revenue is on track to overtake crypto as Robinhood’s faster-growing revenue source as early as this quarter.