Bank of America: Three key thresholds for US stocks to trigger a "full risk-off" this summer, with signals for these conditions already building up.

BofA Securities chief strategist Michael Hartnett outlined three thresholds for a "full risk-off" trigger this summer in his latest Fund Flow Report: the Mag7 ETF falling below $60, USD/JPY dropping below 110, and the yield curve inverting again. None of these conditions have been met yet, but related signals are building. U.S. stock funds posted a net outflow of $8.5 billion, the first such outflow since March, following a historic $119.2 billion net inflow. The divergence where hyperscale cloud providers continue to underperform chip stocks has pushed the sustainability of AI capital spending to the core of market debate: Apple’s MacBook price hikes and Microsoft’s Xbox price increases are both directly tied to rising memory costs. Rack memory prices at Vera Rubin have surged by 435% cumulatively, and Goldman Sachs forecasts AI capital spending could reach as high as $1.4 trillion by 2027. Hartnett’s core ongoing question is: How much further do cloud providers need to fall before the market starts pricing in capital spending cuts? U.S. equity funds have shifted ahead of the curve, with liquidity flowing out of tech giants and into cyclical assets including semiconductors, small-caps, housing, and REITs — a move the market interprets as a front-run bet on a policy shift toward "affordability". For asset classes, Hartnett believes gold remains highly valuable for allocation below $4,000, and going long on long-dated U.S. Treasuries is currently the most contrarian long-term trade. The U.S. dollar is only suitable for short-term holding rather than long-term allocation, while going long on emerging markets over the long term is his strategic stance. Since Fed Chair Waller took office on May 22, U.S. Treasuries have risen by 3.2% cumulatively, while stocks have fallen by 1.6%, with bonds outperforming significantly.