21Shares: Bitcoin Could Rebound to $100,000 by End of Year, Current Trend Aligns With Post-Halving Cycle Characteristics

Asset management firm 21Shares has released its mid-year crypto market report, revisiting its 2026 industry forecast and setting a base-case target of $100,000 for Bitcoin by year-end. Bitcoin previously hit an all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025, and is currently trading at roughly $62,300, approximately 50% below that peak. 21Shares noted that Bitcoin’s post-halving price trajectory “still looks familiar”, with the current pullback aligning closely with historical post-halving patterns, though the decline is far smaller than the over 80% pullbacks seen in prior cycles. The report points out that Bitcoin remains above the $54,000 aggregate investor cost basis, with no signs of the capitulation sell-offs observed in previous bear cycles, signaling a more mature market and stickier capital flows. The report also shows that as of May 2026, global crypto ETP assets under management (AUM) stood at around $140 billion, down roughly 15% year-to-date; ETPs hold approximately 1.25 million BTC, about 8% below their prior peak. 21Shares attributes the decline primarily to price movements rather than widespread liquidations. While U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of around $3 billion, underlying BTC allocations remain near cycle highs. Additionally, the report states that prediction market trading volume reached $57.5 billion by the end of May, already exceeding half of the firm’s full-year forecast. Full-year volume is on track to hit $100 billion, and could challenge $200 billion in the second half, driven by events including the FIFA World Cup and U.S. midterm congressional elections. Total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) remains around $140 billion, below 21Shares’ earlier forecast of $300 billion. Public on-chain tokenized assets amount to $31 billion, including $15 billion in tokenized U.S. Treasuries.