Over 400 giant vessels are gathered outside the Strait of Hormuz, waiting and watching. The resumption of shipping still depends on the clarity of the US-Iran standoff.

June 22 — Shipping and satellite monitoring data shows that despite partial U.S. restrictions being lifted and some commercial vessels tentatively resuming transits, more than 400 large ships are still gathered offshore the Strait of Hormuz, with uncertainty persisting over this key global crude oil shipping route. European Space Agency Sentinel-1 radar satellite data indicates that as of around 14:15 GMT Sunday, a total of 441 large ships matching the scale of oil tankers are clustered in waters near Sohar, Oman, and Fujairah, UAE — a further increase from levels seen during the early April conflict. Shipping companies note the large-scale fleet pre-deployment is aimed at enabling quick restoration of transportation capacity once the strait is fully reopened. However, actual passage remains highly restricted until U.S.-Iran negotiations on ceasefire and navigation mechanisms are finalized. Satellite data revealed the strait’s main channel was nearly stagnant on Sunday. While Iran had previously agreed to open the waterway and remove mines, it announced a phased closure of the passage again after regional tensions escalated. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iranian officials continue negotiations in Switzerland on a “deconfliction mechanism” and maritime security arrangements. The U.S. states the discussions focus on ensuring the strait’s continuous openness and clarifying relevant navigation terms. On the shipping activities front, four Qatari liquefied natural gas carriers transited the strait on Monday, hitting a phase-high since the conflict escalated at the end of February. Additionally, some vessels have reactivated their transponders and publicly disclosed their positions — seen as a signal of marginal improvement in market risk expectations. Following the U.S.’s lifting of restrictions on some Iranian ports and vessels last week, Iranian oil tanker movements have also resumed. But overall shipping remains in a state of high uncertainty and low transit efficiency.