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This Week's Macro Outlook: Market Sentiment Dominated by US-Iran Talks, Data Driving Market Rationality

2026.06.22 09:02:00

June 22. This week, the market’s primary focus will center on the U.S.-Iran talks and their knock-on effects. Early Monday morning, reports of a U.S.-Iran “talks collapse” triggered market jitters, though names like SK Hynix trimmed their opening losses shortly after, helping ease the panic. Looking ahead, the market will keep a close eye on how these negotiations progress in the days ahead. Elsewhere, U.S. PCE data and earnings from AI bellwethers like Micron will shape how the market assesses the sustainability of the AI investment boom. Key scheduled events this week: - Thursday at 4:00 AM ET: The Federal Reserve will release results of its annual bank stress tests. - Thursday at 8:30 AM ET: U.S. economic data for the week ending June 20 (initial jobless claims), plus May’s Core PCE Price Index YoY, Personal Spending MoM, Durable Goods Orders MoM; and revised Q1 metrics: Real GDP Annualized QoQ, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures QoQ, and Core PCE Price Index QoQ. - Friday at 3:40 AM ET: NY Fed President John Williams (permanent FOMC voter) will deliver remarks. - Friday at 6:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (2027 FOMC voter) will speak. - Friday at 11:30 AM ET: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (2026 FOMC voter) will address the audience. Earnings highlights: - Newly listed NVIDIA rival Cerebras Systems (CBRS) will release its Q1 earnings after U.S. markets close on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. The market is awaiting this chip startup’s first post-IPO report: analysts expect a $0.14 per share loss, backed by a $25 billion order backlog, though the firm faces headwinds from high valuation and execution risks. - Storage chip maker Micron Technology (MU) will report its quarterly results after U.S. markets close on Wednesday, June 24, 2026. This release acts as a key barometer of chip demand, with investors closely watching whether demand growth remains on track. Micron has guided for $33.5 billion in revenue and an approximate 81% gross margin.
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Oman has proposed establishing a regional co-governance mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran may abandon its sole control over the waterway.

According to Reuters, Gulf sources revealed that Oman has put forward a proposal to Iran aimed at establishing a mechanism for the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz by regional countries, adopting a voluntary toll model to fund initiatives including navigation management, environmental protection, and search and rescue operations. Sources noted that under the proposal, Iran would not hold sole control over the Strait of Hormuz. The plan draws on the management model of the Strait of Malacca, allowing relevant parties using the strait to voluntarily contribute funds for maintaining channel safety and related services. To date, Oman’s proposal has secured regional backing.

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Japanese and South Korean stock markets both slumped sharply. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell nearly 11%, while Samsung and SK Hynix dropped more than 13%.

According to Bitget market data, South Korea's KOSPI index closed down 732.12 points, or 10.84%, at 6023.63 points. It fell more than 11% intraday to below 6000 points and has shed nearly 30% this month. SK Hynix dropped over 14%, while Samsung Electronics fell more than 13%. Japan's Nikkei 225 index closed down 2566.27 points, a 3.95% decline, at 62364.92 points. Japanese chipmaker Kioxia plummeted more than 18%.

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South Korea plans to cap individual stock leveraged investment at 20%, and will prioritize monitoring the effectiveness of the new policy taking effect on July 31.

According to South Korea’s JoongAng Ilbo, South Korea’s financial regulatory authorities today decided that if overheating in single-stock leverage product investments fails to abate, additional regulatory measures including individual investment caps will be implemented. The authorities are currently focusing on studying a plan to limit individual stock leverage investments to within 20% of total financial investment holdings. Today, Financial Services Commission Chairman Lee Eog-yun stated at a forum that they will first closely monitor the policy effects of supplementary measures such as enhanced margin requirements that took effect on July 31. Lee added that if demand does not sufficiently cool, additional measures will be researched and prepared in advance. It is understood that the plan under study involves setting aggregate management rules, capping the share of individual stock leverage in total financial investment holdings at 20%. For instance, if an investor’s total financial investment holdings amount to 100 million won, they can allocate a maximum of 20 million won to single-stock leverage products.

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The semiconductor sector on China's A-share market has seen a collective pullback, with multiple stocks in the memory chip segment hitting their daily limit down.

China's A-share main indices fluctuated lower: the ChiNext Index plunged over 7%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell more than 4%, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped around 1.4%, and the STAR 50 Index slumped over 6%. Sectors leading the declines included computing power hardware, coal, precious metals, and semiconductor chips. Nearly 3,000 stocks declined across the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing bourses. The semiconductor sector continued its weakness, with memory chips leading the losses. Key stocks in the sector saw sharp drops: Zhongji Innolight recorded a turnover of 38.004 billion yuan, down 13.38%; Accelink Technologies had a turnover of 25.354 billion yuan, down 14.46%; GigaDevice saw a turnover of 17.208 billion yuan and hit the 10% daily downside limit; Dongshan Precision had a turnover of 13.951 billion yuan, also hitting the 10% daily downside limit; TF Micro recorded a turnover of 12.923 billion yuan, down 9.99%; Cambricon had a turnover of 11.187 billion yuan, down 8.85%; Montage Technology posted a turnover of 10.207 billion yuan, down 8.13%; JCET had a turnover of 8.229 billion yuan, down 5.57%.

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Nanfang Double Leveraged Long SK Hynix Drops Over 30%

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The user wants me to write a headline for a Lookonchain tweet about an abnormal order that caused liquidations. Let me extract the key information: - An abnormal order pushed $SKHX below $930 - This triggered over $80M in $SKHX liquidations - Trader 0xc985 was liquidated - His position: 2,026 $SKHX ($2.08M) long - Loss: $260K Requirements: - Max 120 characters - Concise English headline - Keep tickers ($SKHX), key amounts, names - No quotes, no hashtag symbols, no trailing period - ONLY output the headline Key elements to include: - $SKHX (the ticker) - The liquidation amount ($80M or reference to large liquidations) - Maybe the individual trader loss for human interest Let me draft options: 1. "Abnormal order triggers $80M+ $SKHX liquidations, trader 0xc985 loses $260K" - Let me count: A-b-n-o-r-m-a-l- -o-r-d-e-r- -t-r-i-g-g-e-r-s- -$-8-0-M-+- -$-S-K-H-X- -l-i-q-u-i-d-a-t-i-o-n-s-,- -t-r-a-d-e-r- -0-x-c-9-8-5- -l-o-s-e-s- -$-2-6-0-K = about 75 characters. Good. 2. "$80M in $SKHX liquidations after abnormal order, trader 0xc985 loses $260K" - about 78 characters 3. "Abnormal $SKHX order triggers $80M liquidations, 0xc985 suffers $260K loss" - about 75 characters Let me verify the first one stays under 120 and captures the essentials: "Abnormal order triggers $80M+ $SKHX liquidations, trader 0xc985 loses $260K" That's clean and includes the key ticker, the large liquidation amount, and the individual trader's loss. Abnormal order triggers $80M+ $SKHX liquidations, trader 0xc985 loses $260K

An abnormal order briefly pushed $SKHX below $930, triggering more than $80M in $SKHX liquidations. Trader 0xc985 was one of the victims. His 2,026 $SKHX ($2.08M) long position was fully liquidated, resulting in a $260K loss.

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