Trump: Agreement Reached with Iran to Be Signed Tomorrow or the Day After

June 18 — Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot updates, numerous financial institutions are weighing in. The market’s primary focus centers on two key points: whether newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will submit his personal dot plot forecast, and whether inflation expectations will be revised upward, potentially delaying the rate cut trajectory. UBS expects the Fed to lift its inflation forecast. Most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members do not view a rate cut as appropriate before 2028; the median dot currently signals a rate cut in 2028, though the policy stance will remain tight. Goldman Sachs projects the median dot will show interest rates holding steady throughout 2026, with final forecasts still indicating one rate cut apiece in 2027 and 2028. The 2026 economic outlook may include a modest downward adjustment to GDP growth and the unemployment rate, paired with a significant upward revision to inflation projections. B

June 18 (Reuters) — A senior U.S. official said Wednesday that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) set to be signed Friday is not a final, binding agreement, with both the United States and Iran retaining the right to withdraw at any time. The official outlined the 14-point MoU, which will be formally inked in Switzerland, noting that the upcoming next phase of negotiations will focus on the specific sequence of measures laid out in the earlier preliminary accord. "I believe this meeting in Switzerland will be very crucial and will determine how we move to the next stage," the official stated. He emphasized that the talks in Switzerland will serve as a key milestone in advancing the MoU toward a comprehensive final agreement. The details revealed by the official align largely with versions previously published by multiple media outlets, per Golden Finance.

June 18 — Multiple institutions expect the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting, though there’s significant divergence on the future rate path. The market’s focus is on whether the Fed will remove dovish-biased language from its post-meeting statement and how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will approach policy communication. On the "hold" side: Moody’s sees the Fed as unlikely to cut rates in the near term, with its baseline scenario calling for rates to stay flat all year. It notes a potential shift to rate hikes could come if inflation expectations continue to rise. Nomura Securities forecasts the Fed will hold rates steady through 2026. JPMorgan believes rates will remain unchanged for the rest of this year, with the policy stance likely transitioning from dovish to neutral. Wells Fargo states there’s little reason for the Fed to act unless the labor market overheats significantly or the inflation outlook deteriorates further. BNY Mellon expe

On June 18, according to Bitget market data, the three major U.S. stock indexes delivered mixed performances. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.31%, while the S&P 500 edged down 0.09% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.10%. Cryptocurrency-linked stocks posted broad gains, with individual changes as follows: Robinhood (HOOD) surged 12.36%; American Bitcoin (ABTC) rose 6.73%; Gemini (GEMI) gained 5.52%; Circle (CRCL) advanced 3.54%; Bitmine (BMNR) climbed 2.28%; Coinbase (COIN) added 2.06%; Sharplink (SBET) notched a 1.88% increase.

On June 18, Dragonfly General Partner Haseeb Qureshi posted a message revealing he’d long believed the divide between open-source and closed-source AI models would widen—fueled by data discrepancies, hardware gaps, and growing constraints around distillation. That assessment, however, was off. Smart Spectrum Z.ai has moved to another tier entirely: its model benchmark testing is performing exceptionally well, and it’s drawing strong early user feedback. Qureshi added that he’s currently running his Hermes Agent on GLM 5.2 via the AskVenice API, and he’ll share his full user experience thoughts later.

On June 18, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. would provide a $300 billion fund only if Iran "does things right," adding Iran’s reconstruction would take 15 to 20 years. Trump noted frozen Iranian funds belong to Iran and that Washington would return the money to Tehran at some point. He also claimed the U.S. dollar has grown significantly stronger during his tenure, warning failing to return the funds would be detrimental to the greenback, and that the U.S. reserves would run out in about four weeks. Source: FX168