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June 18: The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot data shows that among its 19 policymakers, 18 submitted interest rate projections for 2026 and 2027, while only 17 provided forecasts for 2028. Ahead of the dot plot’s release, the market had widely anticipated that newly appointed Fed Chair Jerome Powell would not submit his own dot plot forecasts. It remains unclear which individual Fed official joined Powell in skipping a 2028 dot plot submission, per FXStreet.

**June 18 (FXStreet) –** Foreign media analysis released this date signals a notable shift in Federal Reserve policymakers’ stances: nearly half no longer believe holding interest rates steady will be sufficient to push inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target, a view driven largely by the sharp spike in oil prices following the Iran war. The central bank’s latest “dot plot” (its individual interest rate path projections) reveals a dramatic flip in internal debate. Previously, officials focused on how long to keep rates on hold before cutting them; now, growing concerns about additional rate hikes dominate—with some policymakers even convinced the Fed will need to lift borrowing costs again. Forecasts published alongside the dot plot show Fed officials have grown more pessimistic about inflation since March, a clear reflection of the war-fueled jump in price pressures. Median projections put the headline PCE price index at 3.6% by year-end, up from March’s 2.7% forecast; core PCE inflat

June 18 – The Federal Reserve’s June dot plot (a key part of its Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP) shows notable shifts in policymakers’ 2026 interest rate outlooks compared to March’s projections, according to data analyzed by FXStreet. Breakdown of Fed participants’ 2026 rate expectations: - 1 participant sees 3 rate hikes (no such projection in March) - 5 participants project 2 rate hikes (0 in March) - 3 participants anticipate 1 rate hike (0 in March) - 8 participants expect rates to hold steady (7 in March) - 1 participant forecasts 1 rate cut (7 in March) - 0 participants call for 2, 3, or 4 rate cuts (vs. 2, 2, and 1 participants respectively in March) Overall, the number of policymakers supporting rate hikes in 2026 has surged to 9, with one official backing an aggressive 75 basis point (bps) hike. Conversely, support for rate cuts has plummeted sharply to just one participant.

On June 18th, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, maintaining the status quo for the fourth consecutive meeting—this move was fully in line with market expectations. Following the Fed’s interest rate announcement, HTX market data shows Bitcoin dipped briefly by more than 1% and is currently trading at $65,417. Per Bitget data, spot gold saw a short-term decline of over $40, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose 35 points in the same period.

On June 18, the Federal Reserve’s dot plot—with 18 of its 19 officials submitting forecasts this cycle—revealed projections for cumulative interest rate adjustments in the remainder of 2026: one official sees a 75 basis points (bps) cumulative hike, five expect a 50 bps increase, three forecast a 25 bps hike, eight call for rates to stay unchanged, and one predicts a 25 bps cumulative rate cut. (Source: FXStreet)

June 18 — Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve by year-end. (Kryptonite)