Prominent Trader: Bitcoin’s supply held by long-term holders in loss has exceeded levels recorded during the FTX collapse
Renowned trader Killa posted that roughly 80% of cycle top indicators never triggered during the last Bitcoin bull run, and a similar situation could occur with bottom indicators in the future, meaning market bottoms cannot be judged by mechanically relying on historical signals. He noted that the supply of long-term holders currently in a loss state has exceeded levels seen during the FTX collapse and is approaching those of the 2018 bear market. Bitcoin’s realized price is currently around $50,000; in every past cycle, the price has tested the realized price of long-term holders, so a return to this region remains possible. However, Killa said it should not be assumed that Bitcoin will definitely drop back to this level. Many top indicators failed to trigger in the last cycle, and some bottom indicators may also become invalid in the future. Regardless, the current level of market loss is already comparable to that during the FTX incident and the 2018 bear market.
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Poll: Democrats have a chance to flip the House, Republicans face pressure.
The latest Emerson College poll shows that Democrats hold an 11-point lead over Republicans in midterm election preferences, with 53% to 42%—marking the Democrats’ largest lead in the poll series. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 39%, while his disapproval rating is 57%. The poll indicates that the Democrats’ advantage stems largely from female voters, among whom they lead Republicans by 27 points. Newsweek, analyzing via its Uniform Swing Model, stated that if this national advantage translates evenly to House districts, roughly 36 Republican-held seats could flip to Democrats, resulting in a hypothetical 251-184 seat split favoring the Democrats. However, the article emphasizes that this is only a model stress test based on national polls, not an election prediction, and the actual outcome will still be influenced by factors such as candidate performance, local issues, voter turnout, and district mapping. (Jinshi)
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CZ: Long-term investors can adopt the dollar-cost averaging strategy to buy in batches.
In a post addressing the question of when the best entry point is for long-term holders during bull or bear markets, CZ stated that investors should adopt the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy. DCA is a strategy of continuously buying the same asset at fixed intervals with a fixed amount each time, which smooths costs by diversifying entry timings and reduces the risk of buying at a high point in a single transaction, though it does not guarantee profits.
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Lee Jae-myung strongly invites U.S. capital to invest in South Korea's tech sector.
According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung stated that South Korea and the U.S. should expand their cooperation beyond their long-standing security alliance, covering also sectors of technology, innovation, and startups. He emphasized that combining the U.S.’s world-class venture capital capabilities and global networks with South Korea’s advanced technological strength and manufacturing competitiveness will foster a new batch of global innovative enterprises. Lee also called on U.S. venture capital firms to step up cooperation and expand investments in South Korea, while pledging to build one of the world’s most attractive investment and startup ecosystems. He noted that South Korea will reform its visa system to better attract overseas entrepreneurial talent, and lay the groundwork for establishing a cooperation framework between domestic and foreign enterprises, research institutions, and investors. He also committed to helping South Korean startups grow into globally competitive firms by connecting privately and publicly managed funds.
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Elon Musk's net worth plummeted, and he joked that he is a "former trillionaire".
According to market data from BIT (bit.com), Tesla’s stock has fallen nearly 20% this week, marking its largest single-week decline since 2022. SpaceX closed at $115.07 per share, its lowest level since the company’s IPO last month. Data from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows that Elon Musk’s personal wealth has evaporated by approximately $130 billion in just five trading days. Just weeks ago, he became the first person in history to have a net worth exceeding $1 trillion. Musk himself joked on social media that he is a “(former) trillionaire”.
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