Pre-IPO Bull vs Bear Debate on SpaceX: Morning Star and the "Valuation Godfather" Deem It Overpriced, While Long-Term Narrative Enjoys Market Optimism

June 12: SpaceX priced its IPO at $135, valuing the company at roughly $1.77 trillion. Below is how top analysts and institutions are weighing in on its post-listing performance, in line with American financial media tone: Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens pegs SpaceX’s fair value at around $780 billion—more than 55% below its $1.77 trillion IPO valuation. He calls the stock overvalued for the near to mid-term, noting the early opening could see a brief rally due to low liquidity and its upcoming inclusion in indexes like the Nasdaq 100. Still, Owens advises investors to skip buying at the high opening price, wait for the hype to cool, and enter at a lower point for more attractive long-term returns. NYU professor and valuation guru Aswath Damodaran puts SpaceX’s equity value at $1.25 to $1.3 trillion—well below its IPO price. He says current pricing is way too high; he’s not buying, nor shorting, but forecasts a big post-listing pullback like Facebook or Uber (which both dropped more than 50% after their debuts). Damodaran recommends waiting for a better entry point, adding that SpaceX’s AI ambitions make its story more grand but also ramp up volatility and short-term pressure. CNBC’s *Mad Money* host Jim Cramer is cautiously skeptical on fundamentals, noting valuing SpaceX at around $2 trillion—about 100 times sales—feels hard to justify. He predicts the opening could see a massive surge, possibly doubling to a $4 trillion market cap, driven by retail FOMO, low liquidity, and passive index fund inflows. But Cramer warns this could be a speculative bubble that disrupts the market, strongly advising retail investors not to chase highs; he says long-term losses tied to the business could trigger a pullback. Timothy Horan, an analyst at New York independent investment bank Oppenheimer, has an Outperform rating on SpaceX vs. the broader market, with a $190 target price—meaning about 41% upside from the $135 IPO. He’s highly bullish on SpaceX’s vertical integration across rockets, Starlink, semis, and AI, expecting total market size here to hit $10 trillion by 2035. While he acknowledges volatility risk, Horan believes there will be support post-opening and significant upside, citing strong long-term growth prospects. John Blank, chief equity strategist at Chicago-based independent research firm Zacks, expects a significant post-listing decline. If SpaceX’s stock drops 40-60% within a few months, he says that would prompt downward revisions to earnings forecasts and signal a potential market top—so Blank advises investors to stay cautious and wait for clearer fundamental validation. University of Florida IPO expert Jay Ritter points to the “Elon Musk Effect” driving high volatility. He says there’s major downside risk at current valuations, noting Musk’s dual-class share structure gives him near-total control, and the company may prioritize capital for long-term projects like Mars over direct shareholder payouts. Ritter expects a correction after the debut, warning investors to watch governance and capital allocation risks closely. Daniel Newman, CEO of tech analysis firm Future Group, says investors holding SpaceX stock over a 5-year window will see strong performance. He thinks the $135 IPO price will look pricey a year from now, but cheap in five years. Newman plans to make a small initial purchase on opening day to hedge against short-term uncertainty, while expecting better entry opportunities within the first 12 months. He’s long-term bullish on Starlink and AI growth. Dan Ives, an analyst at Los Angeles-based Wade Bush Securities, calls SpaceX’s IPO a “watershed” market event and holds an overall optimistic outlook. He puts the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger in 2027 at over 80%, saying post-listing, the company’s AI and space ecosystem long-term narrative will drive strong retail and institutional demand, leading to promising performance.