Bitcoin Holds Above $63,000, Analyst Says True Reversal May Still Take Several Months

June 8: Bitcoin held above $63,000 on Monday, extending a 4% gain from Sunday. This rebound is linked to Strategy CEO Michael Saylor once again signaling plans for additional purchases—a move the market widely views as a major positive trigger. Right now, Bitcoin is hovering around the key 200-week moving average, a level historically seen as a critical support zone for trend reversals. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that the current market sentiment index has dropped to 8, similar to the mid-2022 period when downward momentum eased, though a full trend turnaround didn’t materialize until several months later. For altcoins: Audiera’s BEAT token jumped 78% in the past 24 hours, while Siren (SIREN) rose 33%. Both are Web3 AI projects on the BNB Chain, though the exact catalysts driving their gains remain unclear. Derivatives data shows Bitcoin futures open interest fell from a record high of 901,000 BTC four days ago to 716,000 BTC. This indicates last week’s sharp sell-off was primarily fueled by long liquidations, not heavy short selling. Ethereum’s open interest also declined, from 15.98 million ETH to 14.58 million ETH. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) saw its price drop even as open interest climbed: the token’s open interest grew over 13% in the past 24 hours to 1.64 million BCH—its highest level since July 2023. Meanwhile, its price slumped 8.3% in the same period, signaling intensifying bearish sentiment and potential further downside risks. On the volatility front, the 30-day annualized implied volatility index (BVIV) has fallen from near 59% last Friday to 50%, a sign market panic is easing somewhat. Ethereum’s implied volatility also decreased, dropping from 75% to 69%. At the Deribit options market, the five most active contracts traded over the past 24 hours were all call options—including a BTC call with a $170,000 strike price expiring this December 25. This reflects that some investors are still betting on a major Bitcoin rally before the end of the year. However, a key risk factor remains: market makers’ Gamma distribution around the $60,000 level could amplify price swings. Additionally, Zcash (ZEC) bounced 45% from last week’s low after developers proposed a fix for a privacy pool front-running vulnerability. Over the weekend, Ethereum briefly dipped below $1,600, pushing USDT’s market cap above ETH’s for a short time—but as Ethereum rebounded, their rankings normalized. Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap is still around $1.2 trillion, far exceeding that of any other cryptocurrency.