Institution: Gold's risk-reward structure has reversed, offering $1,500 in upside potential against only $500 in downside risk.
Wells Fargo Global Head of Equity and Real Assets Strategy Sameer Samana said that after gold corrected more than 20% from its January all-time high, the market’s risk-reward structure has shifted, with the metal’s downside narrowing while its long-term upside potential remains attractive to investors.
Samana noted that the market has already priced in most of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike risks. If federal funds futures have factored in expectations of two to three additional rate hikes, gold prices have also largely reflected a similar degree of tightening pressure. The key concern for the market now is whether larger-than-expected rate hikes will emerge in the future, a possibility that is low. Recent downward pressure on gold is mainly driven by rising oil prices, growing expectations of Fed tightening, and higher real yields.
However, Samana believes market sentiment may have turned overly pessimistic, with most negative factors already priced into prices. He pointed out that gold may continue to dip in the short term, as the technical side has not yet confirmed a bottom, leaving a risk of the price falling to $3,500. Meanwhile, the $4,500 to $4,900 range could act as a resistance level for a rebound, as some investors who bought at higher levels may choose to cut losses and exit positions.
But looking at the long-term cycle, Samana argues that gold’s uptrend has not been broken. He said an economic slowdown could push the Fed to resume rate cuts and prompt policymakers to adopt more easing measures, which would provide new upside momentum for gold. Wells Fargo Investment Institute previously projected that gold prices could rise to $5,300 to $5,500 per ounce by the end of 2026, and further climb to $5,800 to $6,000 by the end of 2027.
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Whale Alert: A new address funded last night opened a test position with 40x leverage, locking in a BTC long position worth $12.03 million this morning.
According to Hyperinsight’s monitoring, a new address (0x4ba6) received approximately $464,000 in funds sequentially from three addresses last night. After UBTC was transferred in, it was immediately swapped for USDC, and the funds were moved into a BTC contract almost without delay. The address first opened a short position of 68.1 BTC, then continuously switched between long and short directions to test positions. About half an hour ago, it bought 181.3 BTC via two orders again, finally completing its current position building, with an average execution price of $66,411.6, totaling roughly $12.039 million based on the transaction price. As of press time, the address holds a 40x leveraged long position of 181.3 BTC, with a position value of approximately $12.026 million, liquidation price of $64,580.7, a temporary floating loss of around $13,000, and a return rate of -4.3%. After completing position building, it immediately placed a take-profit trigger order covering the entire position, with a trigger take-profit price of $67,300.0. The address has been active for less than a day, all its historical transactions are concentrated on BTC, its cumulative trading volume has reached $67.28 million, and the account is currently at an overall break-even.
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Elon Musk: Grok Imagine to generate a historically accurate full-length version of "Odyssey" by the end of the year
Elon Musk said that xAI’s AI generation tool Grok Imagine is expected to complete a full-length "historically accurate" adaptation of *The Odyssey* by the end of this year. Musk posted on X that Grok Imagine will be capable of generating a full-length version of *The Odyssey*, emphasizing that the work will strive to align with historical context. *The Odyssey*, an epic poem by ancient Greek poet Homer, tells the story of Greek hero Odysseus’s journey home after the Trojan War. Musk’s latest statement shows that AI video generation technology is evolving toward longer-form, more complex narrative content.
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South Korean stocks send clear signals of market improvement, with leverage liquidation nearing its end and retail investor leverage positions falling to their lowest level in three months.
According to Bitget market data, South Korea’s stock market surged sharply on Wednesday, with the KOSPI index breaking through the 7,100-point mark and rising more than 5.6%. Samsung Electronics gained over 6%, while SK Hynix jumped more than 7%.
The pressure from leveraged trading liquidations that had previously pushed the benchmark index down nearly 30% from its peak appears to be drawing to a close. This rebound has eased the selling pressure of the past several weeks; the sell-off wiped roughly $1.2 trillion off South Korean stocks’ market capitalization since their June highs.
JPMorgan strategist Mixo Das noted that the deleveraging process for South Korean stock leveraged ETF positions is about 75% complete. According to data from the Korea Financial Investment Association, as of July 16, South Korean investors have cut their leveraged stock positions to their lowest level in three months. The margin balance fell to 33.4 trillion won (equivalent to $226 billion), a 13% drop from its late-June peak. For many investors, this is seen as a clear sign of a market turnaround.
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AI payment infrastructure Kite launches Marathon, an adaptive inference infrastructure for long-running AI Agents.
AI payment infrastructure Kite’s ecosystem has launched Marathon, an adaptive inference infrastructure for long-running AI Agents. For each request, users can select a completion window across four tiers: now, soon, later, anytime, with longer wait times translating to lower costs. The deepest tier offers up to ~65% savings compared to real-time pricing (discount is an estimate and fluctuates based on real-time capacity). The service features an OpenAI-compatible API, plus a one-command install plugin for Claude Code and Codex. At launch, it supports five leading open-weight models: Kimi K3, GLM 5.2, DeepSeek V4 Pro, Qwen3.6-35B-A3B, and Nemotron 3 Ultra, all under a unified pricing structure. Details are available at marathon.build. Notably, Kite previously secured $33 million in funding led by PayPal Ventures and General Catalyst. The launch of Marathon marks a key step in its expansion from Agent identity and payment networks to the underlying computing infrastructure of the Agent economy, aiming to enable a full loop of Agents’ “autonomous calling and autonomous payment”.
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