Arab Media: Lebanon-Israel Negotiations to Precede US-Iran Negotiations

Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, commented on the U.S. March CPI report on April 10th: “The key takeaway is core inflation—actually slightly below expectations—while overall inflation came in higher than anticipated, particularly on a year-over-year basis. While the data aren’t overly concerning right now, they haven’t yet captured the full impact of the energy crisis. Looking ahead, additional inflation is clearly expected, but the key signal—core inflation coming in below expectations—suggests energy prices will eventually feed through the entire system gradually and show up later. For now, though, inflation stays high and sticky.”

April 10: Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo of Goldman Sachs Asset Management said the market had already priced in strong inflation data, so today’s in-line inflation reading brought some relief. However, this may be the best overall inflation print we’ll see for a while—since the data only partially reflects the full impact of the Iran conflict, which briefly pushed U.S. crude and gasoline prices up ~70%. She added: “The Fed has room to be patient, and there are good reasons to do so. Today’s data bought the Fed some time, but the real test lies ahead.” (FXStreet)

April 10 – U.S. March non-seasonally adjusted CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, hitting a new high since May 2024 and matching market expectations. The prior reading was 2.40%. Following today’s CPI release, CME’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the April meeting is now 1.6%, while the odds of no rate change stand at 98.4%.

April 10 U.S. Vice President Mike Pence departed on Air Force Two for Islamabad, Pakistan on Wednesday to join U.S.-Iran talks. His accompanying delegation includes U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Affairs Wittkof and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law. Aboard the aircraft prior to takeoff, Pence said he looks forward to the upcoming discussions with Iran and expects the Islamabad talks to be constructive. He added that if Iran is prepared to engage in sincere negotiations, the U.S. will keep an open mind—but warned Tehran against trying to play games with Washington. Pence noted that President Trump has laid out clear guidelines for the talks. (CCTV News)

CoinDesk reported on April 10 that Binance has offered its employees in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) the option to temporarily relocate to Hong Kong, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, or Bangkok amid regional tensions in the Middle East. A Binance spokesperson stated: “Given recent regional tensions, we’ve provided employees with a temporary relocation option as a precautionary measure—prioritizing employee safety to offer flexibility and support during this uncertain period.” The spokesperson added that many employees have opted to remain in the UAE for now, and the company’s business operations there continue to run normally. The relocation proposal comes after the signing of a ceasefire agreement. The six-week regional conflict has disrupted commercial activity in the UAE: Hundreds of missiles and drones have been intercepted by the UAE since the conflict erupted in late February, with another interception reported on April 8. The Middle East conflict has also impacted several crypto-

Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied this week, with Bitcoin up ~8% in the past seven days to $72,267 (per The Block), while Ethereum gained ~7.8% over the same period and several altcoins rebounded. Spot ETFs saw strong inflows on April 9: Bitcoin spot ETFs pulled in $358 million, and Ethereum spot ETFs added ~$85 million (Farside data). But analysts note the market hasn’t escaped volatility tied to geopolitics and interest rates. QCP Capital said this week’s key takeaway: A ceasefire doesn’t equal a full return of risk appetite. Crude has absorbed some war premium, but not enough to ease inflation pressures, and markets are far from pricing in a smooth recovery. Simon Massabni, senior analyst at XS.com, added Bitcoin is at a crossroads between the Strait of Hormuz and Wall Street—geopolitical tensions and institutional caution are driving its next move. On the inflation front: March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year (YoY), up from February’s 2.4% (led by higher energy costs) and slightly