Analyst: Bitcoin Still Faces Oil Price Shock and Inflation Test, Macro Uncertainty Continues to Impact Market

Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied this week, with Bitcoin up ~8% in the past seven days to $72,267 (per The Block), while Ethereum gained ~7.8% over the same period and several altcoins rebounded. Spot ETFs saw strong inflows on April 9: Bitcoin spot ETFs pulled in $358 million, and Ethereum spot ETFs added ~$85 million (Farside data). But analysts note the market hasn’t escaped volatility tied to geopolitics and interest rates. QCP Capital said this week’s key takeaway: A ceasefire doesn’t equal a full return of risk appetite. Crude has absorbed some war premium, but not enough to ease inflation pressures, and markets are far from pricing in a smooth recovery. Simon Massabni, senior analyst at XS.com, added Bitcoin is at a crossroads between the Strait of Hormuz and Wall Street—geopolitical tensions and institutional caution are driving its next move. On the inflation front: March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year (YoY), up from February’s 2.4% (led by higher energy costs) and slightly below the 3.4% consensus. Core CPI climbed 2.6% YoY, also under the 2.7% estimate. Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda said markets still trade on every ceasefire/war headline, but inflation data has grown in importance—it’s the first concrete look at how energy shocks are filtering through the U.S. economy. On the options side: STS Digital CEO Maxime Seiler noted implied volatility is pricing in a calmer summer trend than recent realized volatility. Downside protection remains pricier than upside options, and institutions keep selling covered calls, damping upward momentum. That’s left Bitcoin with a “reluctant, unconfident” rally.