Analyst: CPI data may be "ignored," US-Iran negotiation the sole variable

CoinDesk reported on April 10 that Binance has offered its employees in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) the option to temporarily relocate to Hong Kong, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, or Bangkok amid regional tensions in the Middle East. A Binance spokesperson stated: “Given recent regional tensions, we’ve provided employees with a temporary relocation option as a precautionary measure—prioritizing employee safety to offer flexibility and support during this uncertain period.” The spokesperson added that many employees have opted to remain in the UAE for now, and the company’s business operations there continue to run normally. The relocation proposal comes after the signing of a ceasefire agreement. The six-week regional conflict has disrupted commercial activity in the UAE: Hundreds of missiles and drones have been intercepted by the UAE since the conflict erupted in late February, with another interception reported on April 8. The Middle East conflict has also impacted several crypto-

Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied this week, with Bitcoin up ~8% in the past seven days to $72,267 (per The Block), while Ethereum gained ~7.8% over the same period and several altcoins rebounded. Spot ETFs saw strong inflows on April 9: Bitcoin spot ETFs pulled in $358 million, and Ethereum spot ETFs added ~$85 million (Farside data). But analysts note the market hasn’t escaped volatility tied to geopolitics and interest rates. QCP Capital said this week’s key takeaway: A ceasefire doesn’t equal a full return of risk appetite. Crude has absorbed some war premium, but not enough to ease inflation pressures, and markets are far from pricing in a smooth recovery. Simon Massabni, senior analyst at XS.com, added Bitcoin is at a crossroads between the Strait of Hormuz and Wall Street—geopolitical tensions and institutional caution are driving its next move. On the inflation front: March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year (YoY), up from February’s 2.4% (led by higher energy costs) and slightly

April 10 U.S. Department of Labor data released Friday showed March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year—well above February’s 2.4% reading. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) climbed 2.6% on a year-over-year basis, slightly below the 2.7% market forecast. March energy prices jumped 12.5% y/y, sharply faster than February’s 0.5% gain. Gasoline prices rose 18.9% while fuel oil surged 44.2%. This was the first report to capture the Iran war’s impact on U.S. inflation: Closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping last month, pushing up crude oil and gasoline prices. Economists warn that even if the Strait fully reopens, energy and commodity prices that spiked amid the war are unlikely to return to pre-war levels immediately. Businesses typically act fast to hike prices but are slower to cut them. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza noted: “Most of these impacts will likely materialize one to two months down the line.”

On the evening of April 10 (Pakistan time), a U.S. delegation attending U.S.-Iran negotiations departed for Islamabad, Pakistan, with Vice President Mike Pence aboard. Before departure, Pence voiced anticipation for talks on the Iran issue, noting that President Donald Trump had provided “fairly clear guidance” on the discussions. (CCTV News)

On April 10, data showed the March U.S. non-seasonally adjusted annual CPI rate came in at 3.3%—with gasoline prices making up nearly three-quarters of the increase in U.S. CPI. (Financial Times)

April 10th — Pakistani media confirmed an Iranian delegation has arrived for negotiations, with key talks between Iran and the U.S. set to take place tomorrow. (Golden Ten)