Trump's Comments Trigger Global Stock Market Surge, Low Trading Volume Suggests Fragile Recovery

April 1: Despite former President Trump’s claim that U.S. troops would withdraw “within three weeks” sparking a retaliatory rebound in global equities, deep-seated anxiety over the global economic outlook lingers beneath the market’s recent gains. On Wednesday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted its biggest single-day gain since April 2025, while the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 2.5%. Thin trading volume, however, underscored the rebound’s fragility: the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) traded at just 80% of its monthly average over the past month, for example. Investors fear even if U.S. forces withdraw, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will remain a long-term drag on economic fundamentals. Brent crude, though now below $100 a barrel, is still 37% higher than pre-war levels. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, SMBC Nikko Securities and other firms note that a structural rise in energy costs will squeeze corporate profits and erode consumer purchasing power. Notably, energy-import dependent Asian emerging markets saw $68 billion in capital outflows last month—far more than during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. As earnings season approaches, the war’s heavy hit to corporate profits is set to come to light, which could end the current “rebound” at any moment.