Analyst: Bitcoin Parabolic Rally Era May Be Over, Market Maturing

**April 1st (CoinDesk) — Bitcoin has hovered around $70,000 since early February, far below its $126,000 peak in the 2023-2025 bull market, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole noted Wednesday.** That $70,000 level marks the 2019-2022 cycle’s all-time high—a rare sign the current bear market has pulled back to the prior cycle’s peak. Bitcoin never fell to its prior cycle’s peak during the 2014 and 2018 bear markets. The only exception was 2022, when prices dropped below the 2017 peak of $20,000—analysts blamed that on crypto scams and widespread deleveraging then. What makes this retracement unique? No extreme catalysts—just the natural fade of the bear cycle. New bull cycles no longer see parabolic surges, making it harder for prices to blow past prior highs (old peaks aren’t untouchable anymore). This is classic diminishing returns: the higher Bitcoin’s price climbs, the more capital it takes to push it higher. The era of small inflows triggering sharp spikes is largely over, leaving trends more stable and predictable. Bitcoin’s institutional adoption and derivatives market growth have also tamed extreme volatility. Traders now use structured tools for volatility, timing, and market direction—not just betting on price gains. That’s a sharp contrast to pre-2020, when trading was mostly spot-only, and active players were often diehard bulls buying every dip. Old peaks often act as strong support thanks to anchoring bias: investors who missed the initial breakout tend to buy when prices return to a familiar range, fueling the next rally. That’s why the recent sell-off has stalled near $70,000. A strong rebound from current levels could signal the bear market is nearing its end. But if diminishing returns keep kicking in, the next uptrend may be more muted—like the orderly moves of traditional financial markets, not the speculative frenzy of rapid spikes past.