Analyst: Trump's "5-Day Ceasefire" About to End, Bitcoin Support Level Facing Test

March 26th — The U.S. Department of Defense is preparing for a lethal strike against Iran, pushing Bitcoin below $70,000 again with a 3% drop in the past 24 hours, per Decrypt. The decline was triggered by an Axios report that the Pentagon is drafting military plans against Iran, including options for ground troops and a large-scale bombing campaign. Analysts noted the five-day pause on former President Trump’s strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure expires Friday, leaving Bitcoin’s support level extremely fragile. Glassnode reported the cost basis for short-term holders (purchases in the past month) sits around $70,200 — the current key support level. Resistance is near $82,200, based on the cost basis of holders with 1–3 month positions. However, buy-side accumulation at this support level remains limited, and the risk of a break below cannot be ruled out until more substantial buying emerges. Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey Group, said the $70,200 level is more likely to face repeated retests than a one-step breakdown. Current price action reflects defensive accumulation rather than confirmation of a new trend-driven market. He also warned the current rebound is largely leveraged-driven, not supported by sustained spot buying — making prices vulnerable to a sharp drop if sentiment shifts. On the macro front, intraday volatility in front-month VIX futures jumped to 388.2 recently — its highest level in nearly six months, roughly four times the average threshold typically linked to market panic. Yet over the past three months, the S&P 500 has seen just two trading sessions with daily moves (gains or losses) exceeding 1.75%. The Kobeissi Letter noted implied volatility in futures and options markets is far higher than the S&P 500’s realized volatility, indicating “uncertainty is at an unprecedented level.”