European Parliament Votes to Approve EU-US Trade Agreement

**March 26 Reuters Survey: Fed Seen Holding Rates Through September, Markets Price Near-30% Hike Odds This Year** Economists project the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady through September, per a March 26 Reuters survey. Despite ongoing inflation concerns tied to the Middle East war, they still expect at least one rate cut later this year. In contrast, financial markets have fully ruled out rate cuts in 2024, with nearly 30% odds of a hike—driven by a 40%+ jump in crude oil prices amid four weeks of U.S.-Iran conflict. Economists view the energy shock’s impact as limited and short-lived. The survey shows wide divergence in end-2026 rate forecasts, split into four camps: 28 expect one cut, 37 see two cuts, 13 forecast no change this year, and 4 predict three cuts. (Source: FXStreet)

March 26th — The U.S. Department of Defense is preparing for a lethal strike against Iran, pushing Bitcoin below $70,000 again with a 3% drop in the past 24 hours, per Decrypt. The decline was triggered by an Axios report that the Pentagon is drafting military plans against Iran, including options for ground troops and a large-scale bombing campaign. Analysts noted the five-day pause on former President Trump’s strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure expires Friday, leaving Bitcoin’s support level extremely fragile. Glassnode reported the cost basis for short-term holders (purchases in the past month) sits around $70,200 — the current key support level. Resistance is near $82,200, based on the cost basis of holders with 1–3 month positions. However, buy-side accumulation at this support level remains limited, and the risk of a break below cannot be ruled out until more substantial buying emerges. Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey Group, said the $70,200 level is more

On March 26, Bloomberg reported that Bitcoin mining firm Mara Holdings sold 15,133 bitcoins.

**March 26: Iran Conflict Risks Push Investors to Cash, Echoing 2022 Ukraine Invasion Playbook** Investors are dumping stocks and bonds and ramping up cash holdings to hedge Iran war risks—mirroring the strategy deployed after Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion. A Bank of America fund manager survey this month showed cash allocations posted their biggest jump in six years. JPMorgan strategists emphasized this week that portfolio shifts in response to the conflict are far from over. In a report led by Nicholas Panigirtzoglou, the team noted elevated geopolitical and macro uncertainty will keep current below-historical cash levels a drag on future equities and bonds. Investors have been selling stocks, bonds, and gold simultaneously to boost cash—but cash positions remain moderate compared to when the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, per FXStreet.

On March 26, spot silver plunged 5.7% intraday, per Bitget data, and was last trading at $67.14 per ounce.

Hong Kong Police updated the public on the progress of the JPEX crypto exchange fraud case on March 26, per the Hong Kong Commercial Daily. Since September 2023, 80 people have been arrested, and assets worth around HK$228 million have been frozen. On March 26, police carried out additional raids, charging 10 individuals with money laundering and conspiracy to launder money. Hong Kong Police Commercial Crime Investigation Department Inspector Han Chenghao noted the JPEX case is Hong Kong’s largest crypto fraud in recent years by victim count and loss amount—over 2,700 victims have reported losses exceeding HK$1.6 billion. To date, no company or individual has admitted to being the actual operator, so police will conduct extensive investigations to identify the mastermind, key members, or accomplices.