Last Night's US-Iran Situation Review: Negotiation Signals and Military Preparedness Simultaneously Escalate, Deep Disagreements Remain

March 24: U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran held "very good and productive" talks over the past two days, pausing military strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. Trump noted Iran wants to end the conflict, and both sides are discussing a broader agreement—talks that began last Saturday. "They are serious this time," he said, adding he hopes to "get it done." An Israeli official and two insiders confirmed Iran’s dialogue representative is influential Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Israeli media reported Washington has set April 9 as a target date to end the war, roughly 21 days from now. But Iran denied engaging in "negotiations" with Trump. Ghalibaf called Trump’s statement "fake news," saying military actions are still escalating. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it is launching a new round of attacks on U.S. targets, dismissing Trump’s remarks as "psychological warfare" that is "already ineffective" and has no impact on battles in Tehran. Separately, CCTV News reported a senior Iranian official revealed the two sides have exchanged messages via Egypt and Turkey to ease tensions. The Trump administration is covertly assessing Ghalibaf’s potential as a negotiation partner—and even a future leader, with one U.S. official calling him "a good choice" but stressing the need to test him and avoid rushing. Iran strongly denied the claims: Ghalibaf himself denied involvement in negotiations, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated no direct talks have been held with the U.S., noting Washington has not accepted Iran’s two core demands—compensating for losses and acknowledging misconduct. On military movements: The New York Times reported senior U.S. Department of Defense officials are considering deploying around 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division’s rapid response brigade, which can reach target areas within 18 hours. One option under review is seizing Iran’s Kharg Island, a major oil export hub. Iran’s military, meanwhile, said it has prepared new "surprise operations" for the coming days, promising "significant effects" and claiming Trump’s "all military options have failed." Economically, Goldman Sachs on Monday raised the probability of the U.S. entering a recession in the next 12 months to 30%—up 5 percentage points from prior estimates. The bank cited continued blockages of the Strait of Hormuz pushing up energy prices and tightening financial conditions. It also expects the conflict to reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points.