Abnormal Betting Activity on Polymarket Prior to Trump's Tweet, S&P and Crude Oil Futures Simultaneously Experienced Abnormal Volume

On Monday, March 24, former President Donald Trump said in a post that the U.S. and Iran held a "very good and productive dialogue" on ending the Middle East conflict. Prior to the post, 10 large new accounts on prediction market platform Polymarket had placed significant bets that the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire by March 31 or April 15, with total wagers of roughly $160,000. A month-end ceasefire would net them over $1 million in profits; since Trump’s post, the accounts have already seen more than $300,000 in unrealized gains. One of those accounts previously bet over $85,000 on a U.S. strike against Iran and turned a profit. It is now betting on a ceasefire. The bets’ scale, timing, and the account’s track record have raised questions from outsiders: are these accounts linked to insiders with access to undisclosed U.S.-Iran diplomatic information? Separately, S&P 500 E-mini futures and WTI crude oil futures saw isolated anomalous trading volume roughly 15 minutes before Trump’s post—with no clear market catalyst at the time. After Trump’s post, S&P 500 futures jumped over 2.5% in pre-market trading, while crude oil futures fell nearly 6%. Traders who bought stock futures and shorted oil at that window could have pocketed huge profits in minutes. The SEC and CME Group both declined to comment. On Monday, Polymarket announced updated insider trading rules, explicitly banning: - Trading based on stolen confidential information - Trading using illegal insider tips - Trading when users can influence an event’s outcome (Jinse)