Institutional Outlook on Federal Reserve Rate Path: Room for Rate Cuts is now quite limited, with only one rate cut possible later this year

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2am Beijing Time tomorrow (March 18). Markets widely expect the central bank to hold rates steady, shifting focus to Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting monetary policy press conference. Key institutional outlooks follow: 1. **Bloomberg**: Further rate cuts have limited room; expects the Fed to deliver the cycle’s final 25-basis-point cut at the June meeting. 2. **Goldman Sachs**: Forecasts 25-basis-point cuts in September and December; earlier cuts possible if the labor market softens more sharply than anticipated. 3. **Deutsche Bank**: Expects rates to stay unchanged this week; rising geopolitical uncertainty and oil-driven inflation are shrinking the scope for cuts. 4. **Nomura Credit**: Sees rates on hold through year-end; some FOMC members may argue to overlook short-term energy-fueled inflation, but most are more cautious. 5. **ING Bank**: The Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance under Powell; more aggressive cuts could come if Lael Brainard takes office to counter an economic downturn. 6. **TS Lombard**: Labor market concerns are resurfacing; two cuts this year possible if: the energy shock fades in weeks, tariff inflation base effects emerge in H2, and rent inflation slows rapidly. (Source: FX678)