Analyst: Crypto Market FOMO Completely Eliminated, But Sell Pressure Not Yet Exhausted

On March 18, on-chain data analyst Axel released a new research report noting that Bitcoin’s market overheating has been fully eliminated, but selling pressure has not eased and no clear reversal signal has emerged. The report shows Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score — a metric measuring valuation overheating — has plummeted 74% from its cycle high of 2.603 in October 2025 to 0.674, far below its historical mean (1.72) and first standard deviation band (3.55). This confirms the valuation bubble has been fully cleared. The current 0.5-1.0 range signals a neutral cycle phase, where market cap only moderately exceeds realized cap. However, the 7-day moving average of aSOPR (a gauge of market participants’ profit/loss status) has stayed below 1.0 for 55 consecutive trading days, with the latest reading at 0.9926 — indicating ongoing loss-taking. Since last crossing above 1.0 on January 21, 2026, the indicator has failed to return to the profit-selling range. Axel emphasized that 1.0 is the critical threshold separating loss-selling from profit-selling behavior. Until aSOPR stabilizes above 1.0 for multiple consecutive days, any rebound may face selling pressure. The key question now is not whether Bitcoin is undervalued, but whether selling pressure has been exhausted — and so far, the answer remains no.