Moody's: Bank of Japan Could Hike Rates to 1% by Midyear, Expected to Stand Pat This Week

**Crypto Analyst Murphy Breaks Down BTC Options Structure Shifts** March 16th: Crypto analyst Murphy notes that March 20 expiry Gamma Exposure (GEX) shows ~$180 million in GEX near the $74,000 strike, in a long gamma structure. In this setup, market makers’ hedging typically suppresses volatility, pushing BTC to oscillate around $74k—effectively creating resistance at that level. However, post-March 20th (ahead of the next major expiry on March 27th), the options structure has shifted sharply: **Call Open Interest (OI) far outpaces Put OI**, signaling large institutional funds are betting BTC will rally toward $75,000. Murphy expects $75k to become BTC’s new focal point post-20th expiry. Volatility will flip from suppressed to amplified, with resistance near $80k and support in the $65k-$67k range.

**March 16: Middle East Tensions Escalate** U.S. forces conducted military strikes on Iranian energy facilities and plans to launch tanker escorts in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has signaled the conflict could drag on, warning it will retaliate against U.S. regional targets if its energy infrastructure is hit. Maritime risks have spooked shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving a sharp drop in transit volumes. Global energy and supply chain stability concerns have intensified rapidly. **Conflict Spillovers Hit Metals; IEA Eyes Reserve Releases** The crisis has spilled over from energy to industrial metals: one of the world’s largest independent aluminum smelters cut output by ~20% due to disrupted raw material supplies, pressuring Gulf region aluminum supply chains. The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced plans to tap strategic crude reserves for the Asian market to ease short-term supply disruptions. If Hormuz shipping restrictions persist, knock-on e

On March 16, former President Donald Trump stated that tariffs were his top decision priority, noting the Supreme Court knew his stance on securing a win for the U.S.—but that the court’s ruling could hand trillions to countries and companies that had exploited the U.S. for decades. The high court’s decision pleased those nations, he added, yet the court itself had acknowledged he retained absolute authority to impose tariffs in another form, and he had already begun doing so. This follows the U.S. Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling that Trump’s trade tariff policy was illegal.

March 16: Per crypto analyst Darkfost, open interest for ETH contracts on Binance has dropped sharply—falling by roughly 400,000 ETH since January. Meanwhile, Binance’s ETH spot-to-futures trading ratio has tumbled to its lowest level since 2023, the year the bear market concluded. Still, Binance’s current ETH futures trading volume remains over six times that of spot trading. This underscores the current weakness in Ethereum’s spot market, where even selling by the Ethereum Foundation and Vitalik Buterin could stoke investor caution.

**March 16 – South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) will convene a sanctions review committee today to assess penalties for crypto exchange Bithumb over anti-money laundering (AML) violations under the Specific Financial Information Act.** The FIU previously issued a pre-notice to Bithumb outlining a proposed 6-month partial business suspension and a warning to its representative director—stricter than the 3-month partial suspension imposed on rival Upbit. Bithumb has more transactions with unregistered overseas exchanges than Upbit, a key metric for determining sanction severity. Upbit was fined 35.2 billion South Korean won and hit with a 3-month partial shutdown for 44,948 such transactions; Korbit, with just 19 related transactions, received a 2.7 billion won fine and an institutional warning. Market watchers expect Bithumb’s fine could exceed 37 billion won. A South Korean Financial Services Commission (FSC) official noted the exchange’s specific sanctions are no

On March 16, Caixin reported that China’s official Digital Currency Operations and Management Center has flagged three common scam schemes targeting the Digital RMB: - **Scheme 1: Pyramid fraud disguised as "digital currency promotion"** The Digital RMB has never run activities like "recruiting promoters," "promoter exams," "QR code downloads," or "downline recruitment"—nor has it charged a 400-yuan equipment installation fee. Anyone recruiting "community promoters" via chat groups, offline/online meetings is scamming. - **Scheme 2: Fake "order rebate" transfer scams** Scammers lure victims into sending funds by promising rebates for placing orders. - **Scheme 3: Counterfeit app theft** Fraudsters trick users into downloading fake apps to steal personal information or funds.