Bitunix Analyst: Hormuz Strait Shipping Crisis Spills Over to Industrial Metals, Risk-off Sentiment Rises, BTC Reclaims $71,300 Level

**March 16: Middle East Tensions Escalate** U.S. forces conducted military strikes on Iranian energy facilities and plans to launch tanker escorts in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has signaled the conflict could drag on, warning it will retaliate against U.S. regional targets if its energy infrastructure is hit. Maritime risks have spooked shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving a sharp drop in transit volumes. Global energy and supply chain stability concerns have intensified rapidly. **Conflict Spillovers Hit Metals; IEA Eyes Reserve Releases** The crisis has spilled over from energy to industrial metals: one of the world’s largest independent aluminum smelters cut output by ~20% due to disrupted raw material supplies, pressuring Gulf region aluminum supply chains. The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced plans to tap strategic crude reserves for the Asian market to ease short-term supply disruptions. If Hormuz shipping restrictions persist, knock-on effects on energy and industrial raw material prices could lift global inflation outlooks further. **U.S. Macro: Slow Growth + Sticky Inflation Spur Stagflation Talk** U.S. Q4 GDP was downgraded to 0.7%, signaling a sharp slowdown in economic momentum. January core PCE remained at 3.1% year-over-year, while the labor market stayed resilient—job openings climbed to 6.95 million. The mix of slowing growth and persistent inflation has spurred talk of a “stagflation shock.” Amid geopolitical risks and macro uncertainty, global market risk appetite remains highly differentiated. **Crypto: BTC Retakes $71,300; Liquidity Key to Short-Term Moves** Bitcoin (BTC) retook the key resistance level of $71,300, indicating some risk capital is returning to crypto. Liquidity remains concentrated between $72,700 and $74,000. A hold above $71,300 would push the short-term market into a new liquidity battleground. Downside support to watch is around $69,000 and $70,200. Against ongoing macro/geopolitical uncertainty, BTC’s short-term structure is driven primarily by fund risk sentiment and derivatives liquidity positioning.