Lookonchain APP

App Store

Arthur Hayes: If Trump Ups Ante on Iran, Fed May Have to Ease, Positive for Bitcoin

2026.03.02 09:09:08

On March 2nd, Arthur Hayes published his latest article, “iOS Warfare,” which leverages the U.S.’s escalating military actions against Iran to analyze the potential interplay between war, Federal Reserve policy, and the crypto market. Hayes notes that since the 1990 Gulf War and 2001 “War on Terror,” the Federal Reserve has typically responded in the aftermath of U.S. military launches or escalations in the Middle East by cutting interest rates or injecting liquidity to offset economic impacts. He argues that continued escalation of the Iran issue by the Trump administration could create fiscal pressure and financial market volatility—providing “political cover” for the Fed to further cut rates or restart easing policies. Hayes frames his logic simply: longer wars bring higher costs, increasing the likelihood of Fed monetary policy loosening. Cheaper, more abundant dollar liquidity typically benefits risk assets—including Bitcoin. For trading strategies, Hayes advises investors to “wait for signals”—specifically, to boost allocations to Bitcoin and high-risk crypto assets (like HYPE) only after the Fed explicitly announces a rate cut or launches a new easing cycle.
Relevant content

Maji cuts long positions in ETH and BTC, increases long positions in HYPE, bringing total positions down to $95.16 million.

Per TradingBeats monitoring, crypto personality "Big Brother Ma Ji" Huang Licheng trimmed his long positions in ETH and BTC while adding to his long HYPE positions, bringing his total positions down to $95.16 million. His current positions are as follows: ETH long positions worth ~$67.75 million, with an unrealized profit of ~$1.81 million and an entry price of $2,526.46; BTC long positions of ~$15.02 million, with an unrealized loss of ~$30,000 and an entry price of $80,923.4; HYPE long positions of ~$12.44 million, with an unrealized loss of ~$160,000 and an entry price of $92.64.

2 hours ago

Wall Street projects that the U.S. will issue around $1 trillion in short-term debt.

According to the Financial Times, as borrowing costs rise, Wall Street expects the United States to issue roughly $1 trillion in short-term debt.

2 hours ago

Zhipu AI’s latest statement: Its MaaS (Model as a Service) platform will go live with no data retention, meaning input and output data will no longer be stored on disk.

Beating AI Insight News Brief: Zhipu AI’s MaaS (Model as a Service) platform announced it will soon launch a "No Data Retention" feature. After users apply to enable this function, inputs and outputs from calls to general models will no longer be statically stored on the platform, with data only used to complete the current call. However, not all data is exempt from retention: features requiring persistent data such as Batch API and File API are not covered, while requests suspected of violating rules or being abused may also be retained for 30 days or longer. This mechanism is commonly called ZDR (Zero Data Retention), a feature already offered by model platforms including OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Mistral, primarily targeting sensitive data like code and corporate documents that users do not wish to keep on model providers’ servers. Recently, Zhipu’s ZCode sparked controversy for its default upload of users’ repository data. Zhipu has issued a public apology and promised to open-source the project for review. Today, another enterprise sent a letter demanding Zhipu clarify the whereabouts and deletion status of the uploaded data. Zhipu did not state whether the MaaS feature update is related to the ZCode incident.

2 hours ago

US and South Korean Stock Markets: Monday Price Preview – Most US tech stocks edged lower, with Micron and SanDisk each dropping over 1%.

During the weekend closure of traditional markets, Trade.xyz – dubbed the "on-chain Nasdaq" – enables continuous trading and real-time price discovery via perpetual contracts, pricing in advance for Monday’s U.S. and South Korean stock sessions. Most popular U.S. stocks on Trade.xyz are trading lower than their Friday closing prices, signaling an overall small pre-market opening dip on Monday: SanDisk (SNDK) is currently at $1761.75, down 1.68% from Friday’s close of $1791.82; Marvell Technology (MRVL) stands at $240.79, down 1.42% from Friday’s $244.25; Micron (MU) is at $1001.85, down 1.37% from Friday’s $1015.8; AMD is at $554.09, down 1.02% from Friday’s $559.82; NVIDIA is at $220.49, down 0.80% from Friday’s $222.27; Google is at $349.53, nearly flat from Friday’s $349.54; Intel is at $109.81, up 1.11% from Friday’s $108.6. All popular South Korean stocks on Trade.xyz are trading slightly lower than their Friday closing prices, pointing to small opening dips for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix on Monday: Samsung Electronics is at $187.26, down 0.62% from Friday’s $188.42; SK Hynix is at $1332.95, down 0.53% from Friday’s $1340.

2 hours ago

Fed's Kashkari: Inflation remains too high, not just driven by oil prices.

Fed’s Kashkari stated that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s task is to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Inflation remains too high, and it is not solely driven by oil price factors.

2 hours ago

Coinbase's Bitcoin Premium Index has turned negative again, currently standing at -0.0198%.

According to Coinglass data, Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has turned negative again, now standing at -0.0198% (compared to 0.0013% yesterday), as buying sentiment in the U.S. market has slumped once more. BlockBeats Note: The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index measures the gap between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase, a leading U.S. crypto exchange, and the global average market price. It is a key indicator for monitoring U.S. market capital flows, institutional investment activity, and shifts in market sentiment. A positive premium indicates Coinbase’s Bitcoin price is higher than the global average, typically signaling strong buying demand in the U.S. market, active inflows of institutional or compliant capital, ample U.S. dollar liquidity, and generally optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium means Coinbase’s Bitcoin price is lower than the global average, usually reflecting heavy selling pressure in the U.S. market, declining investor risk appetite, rising market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

2 hours ago

Popular tokens

BitcoinEthereumHyperliquidSolanaTRONBNBTetherAaveXRPPepeFartcoinOndoJupiterUniswapBonkPendleEthenaArbitrumAvalancheLidoChainlinkPolygonDogecoinCardano