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Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin Reaching $75K in February" Drops to 17%

2 hours ago

As of February 21st, Polymarket’s probability for Bitcoin rebounding to $75k in February has fallen to 17%. Additionally, the odds of it hitting $80k are 3%, while the chance of it dropping to $60k stands at 14%.

Relevant content

24hr Spot Trading Flows: USD1 Net Inflow of $72.37M, ETH Net Inflow of $40M;

As of February 21, Coinglass data reveals the top net fund flows in crypto spot markets over the past 24 hours: ### Top Net Outflows - BTC: $371M - ENSO: $16.96M - KITE: $11.46M - BIO: $9.96M - DOGE: $9.26M ### Top Net Inflows - USD1: $72.37M - ETH: $40M - TRX: $8.20M - BNB: $7.01M - BCH: $3.86M

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「Silver Bullet Air Force」 has shorted 5000 ETH and 50 BTC, equivalent to $13.28 million

On February 21, per monitoring from HyperInsight (via https://t.me/HyperInsight), the "Silver Head Iron Army" (address 0x61cee) has again entered the market to short: - 5,000 ETH (~$9.88 million) at an entry price of $1,968.97, with an unrealized loss of $36,000 to date; - 50 BTC (~$3.4 million) at $67,727.5 per BTC, currently holding an unrealized loss of $16,000. This address has consistently maintained a bearish stance on silver, having previously closed a long-held silver short position with an unrealized loss of $4.79 million.

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After 5 years of dormancy, a certain whale deposited 1000 BTC into Bitfinex, making a profit of approximately $38.35 million

On February 21, Onchain Lens monitoring data shows a 5-year dormant Bitcoin whale deposited 1,000 BTC (valued at ~$67.64 million) to Bitfinex, netting an approximate profit of $38.35 million. The address originally spent ~$29.28 million to withdraw this batch of BTC from Bitstamp and FTX.

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Coinbase CEO: Coinbase Custodies Over 80% of US BTC and ETH ETF Assets, ETF Net Inflows to Peak at $31 Billion by 2025

February 21 — Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced in an X post that the exchange holds custody of over 80% of all U.S.-listed BTC and ETH ETF assets, and saw a peak of $31 billion in net inflows for those ETFs in 2025. Coinbase currently partners with dozens of ETF providers, including major financial institutions and government entities. It routinely conducts penetration tests with leading cryptographers, holds numerous relevant technical patents, and undergoes ongoing security audits.

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Analyst: Bitcoin's recent pullback has led to a record high in realized losses, potentially nearing a local bottom

On February 21, cryptocurrency analyst Micha?l van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin’s recent pullback has pushed realized losses to an all-time high—one of the largest such events in the asset’s history, on par with the 2018 bear market crash, March 2020 COVID-19 plunge, and 2022 losses tied to the Luna/FTX collapse. A wave of holders is engaging in capitulation selling: either panic-selling BTC or transferring it while underwater. This extreme surge in realized losses typically signals panic selling and forced liquidations. Historically, sharp spikes in realized losses have often coincided with near or interim market bottoms, as they mark the exit of “weak hands” and highly leveraged positions. Notably, the Sharpe Ratio has fallen to its lowest level since the last market bottom; the market is in the midst of a massive capitulation event with record-high realized losses; and sentiment is near rock bottom. The only exception this cycle? Bitcoin has dropped just ~50% from its all-time

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IoTeX Confirms Asset Theft, But Actual Loss Much Lower Than Market Rumors

**IoTeX Updates on Asset Theft Incident (February 21)** IoTeX announced on February 21 that it is evaluating and actively managing its recent asset theft incident, with initial estimated losses far lower than the amounts rumored. The team has coordinated with major exchanges and security partners to trace and freeze the hacker’s assets, and the situation is currently under control. Continuous monitoring will continue, and the community will receive timely updates on the latest developments.

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