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Analyst: Technicals and On-Chain Data Point to Bitcoin's Short-Term Downside Risk

2026.02.18 11:23:07

Feb. 18: Bitcoin faces short-term downside risks, per analyst Yashu Gola, who cites both technical indicators and on-chain data. **Technical Setup**: Bitcoin’s daily chart is forming a classic bear pennant. The pattern follows a sharp drop to the $60k region (the “flagpole”), with price now consolidating between converging trendlines—pressured by key moving averages and showing fading momentum. **Key Levels**: - A clear break below the pennant’s lower boundary could send Bitcoin tumbling to $56k in February (roughly a 20% drop from current levels). - Conversely, a breakout above the upper trendline (~$72.7k, aligning with the 20-day moving average) would invalidate the bearish setup. **On-Chain Data**: CryptoQuant figures show Bitcoin’s 7-day average Whale Inflow Volume Ratio has hit a record 0.619—well above its early-month 0.40 reading. The metric measures the share of total inflows from the top 10 transactions; a rise here typically signals growing whale selling pressure. **Greed & Fear Index**: The index is flashing a potential bottoming signal: its 21-day moving average, after crossing below the zero line, is now turning higher. Historically, this setup has coincided with a lasting bottom—meaning a brief downturn could still occur, but rebound odds are rising.
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