Polymarket Predicts Probability of "Bitcoin Reaching $100,000 in January" Drops to 29%

On January 10, per Bitget market data, the S&P 500 Index hit an intraday all-time high, climbing 0.6%.

January 10th: A wallet that received LA tokens from the team wallet five months ago has transferred $1.6 million worth of LA to Binance, per monitoring from OnChainSchool.pro. The wallet still holds $13.8 million in LA tokens.

On January 10, The Block reported that 30+ Democrats—including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi—are actively supporting legislation to bar elected officials from placing politically related bets on prediction markets, following a gambling incident tied to former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s arrest. Titled the “2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act,” the bill was formally introduced Friday by New York State Assemblyman Ritchie Torres. Earlier, a Polymarket account wagered on Maduro being “ousted” by the end of this month, netting $400,000 in profits—sparking insider trading concerns. The legislation’s rollout aligns with growing worries over such activity.

Jan. 10: Citigroup forecasts 25-basis-point interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in March, July, and September this year, per market sources—revising its prior projection which called for cuts in January, March, and September.

Jan. 10 — Market sources report the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the Trump tariff case Wednesday, Jan. 14.

Jan. 10 — Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Global Macro Director, noted Bitcoin’s current trajectory aligns more with the internet’s S-curve than a power-law curve. Many Bitcoin proponents argue the four-year cycle has ended, with a new structural uptrend on the horizon. I’m skeptical, though—not of the diminishing impact of halving cycles (a point I agree with), but of the idea that bear markets are a thing of the past. Right now, Bitcoin’s floor sits at $65k (its prior all-time high), while the power-law trendline pegs its base at $45k. While there’s still a gap to the target level, if Bitcoin consolidates over the next year, the power-law trendline could drift closer to $65k and become a make-or-break level. That said, this may (or may not) materialize in the coming year or beyond.