Analysis: Bitcoin on Track for Worst Q4 Performance Since 2018, Market Rebound 'Lackluster'

December 23rd – Bitcoin recently rebounded to nearly $90,000, giving the crypto market a short-term lift. However, analysts broadly agree this move does not signal a trend reversal. Per CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has dropped more than 22% in the fourth quarter (Q4) this year—potentially marking one of its worst-performing Q4s since 2018, trailing only major bear market years. While the total cryptocurrency market cap has reclaimed the key $3 trillion threshold, market sentiment remains cautious. Analysts note this rebound stems more from a technical bounce after a prolonged decline than fresh capital inflows. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, stated the current trend is “not a true recovery,” with only limited improvement in market sentiment. As of the Asian trading session, Bitcoin is hovering around $88,000—still roughly 30% below its 2025 high and under its year-opening level. Major tokens are overall volatile: XRP, ETH, SOL, ADA, and DOGE posted slight gains, while AAVE continued to weaken amid governance disputes, down 7% over the past 24 hours. Seasonal factors are also reinforcing cautious outlooks. Historical data shows Q4 is typically a strong period for Bitcoin, but years with heightened liquidity tightening and macro uncertainty often see significant year-end retracements. The market still faces frequent selling pressure during U.S. trading hours, with high short-term price volatility risks.