「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent: Trump's National Address Equivalent to War Pledge, Conflict Escalation Now Irreversible
April 2: Garrett Jin, an agent with "BTC OG Whale Insider," posted that Trump’s national address amounts to a commitment to hot conflict, with escalating tensions now irreversible. He noted every major call since the conflict began has held: no war exit plan, no Strait of Hormuz resolution, exposed oil supply gaps, and heightened risks for importers. This week’s brief optimistic rebound, he said, was expected—a position-driven short squeeze, not a fundamental shift.
Subsequently, Trump delivered his national address, which sent two key signals:
1. He claimed military action is "nearly complete" and set a 2-3 week timeline.
2. He threatened to strike Iran’s power infrastructure with "extreme force" if no agreement is reached.
Market reactions reflected both: oil prices jumped more than 6% (signaling escalating conflict), while the U.S. dollar weakened (reflecting expectations of a potential exit).
Jin’s interpretation: The "nearly complete" line is primarily domestic politi
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LIT briefly surges over 5%, currently trading at $0.906
April 2nd — Per HTX market data, LIT has surged over 5% in a short period and is currently trading at $0.906.
Earlier reports note that Telegram’s built-in encrypted wallet, “Wallet in Telegram,” has launched perpetual contract trading, backed by technical support from Lighter. The platform supports over 50 markets spanning metals, stocks, oil, and cryptocurrencies, with leverage options up to 50x.
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The U.S. saw a decline in initial jobless claims last week, with the labor market holding steady in its low hiring and low firing trend.
On Thursday, April 2, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 last week—signaling a stable labor market in March with minimal layoffs.
So far this year, claims have fluctuated between 201,000 and 230,000, aligning with economists’ “low hiring, low firing” characterization. Economists link the labor market’s stagnation to ongoing uncertainty from former President Trump’s aggressive import tariff policies. Additionally, the one-month U.S.-Israel war against Iran has added another layer of uncertainty for businesses.
A Reuters survey of economists projects March nonfarm payrolls will rebound by roughly 60,000 jobs, but some warn the surge may be temporary—driven by a global oil price jump of over 50% amid the conflict.
Nancy Vanden Houten, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, noted: “We expect the war to slow the modest labor market improvement we anticipated earlier this year, as businesses pause hiring amid un
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Analyst: Bitcoin Short Position Overly Crowded, Potential for Pre-Easter Short Squeeze
**April 2nd**
Bitcoin dipped below $66k on Wednesday, down 3.7% over the past 24 hours, and has held within a $60k-$70k range in recent weeks.
- **On-chain/holder trends**: Glassnode notes spot demand is absorbing selling pressure but not yet enough to fuel sustained upside. An estimated 8-9 million BTC are held at a cost basis above current prices, creating resistance to rebounds. Long-term holders are still realizing losses at elevated levels, signaling the redistribution phase isn’t over.
- **Derivatives**: Funding rates were negative for most of Q1, meaning short traders have been paying a premium. Bitfinex analyst: “Traders are paying to keep short positions— a short squeeze could materialize if upside momentum hits this concentrated short.” Option demand has fallen: implied volatility is contracting, and skew tilts slightly toward downside protection (investors hedging risk over betting on breakouts).
- **Macro/outlook**: Bitunix analyst says the market is in a “suppl
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US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 came in at 202,000, compared to the expected 212,000.
On April 2nd, U.S. weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28th were reported at 202K—coming in below the 212K consensus forecast. The prior week’s figure was revised from 210K to 211K. (IG)
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