The U.S. saw a decline in initial jobless claims last week, with the labor market holding steady in its low hiring and low firing trend.

On Thursday, April 2, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 last week—signaling a stable labor market in March with minimal layoffs. So far this year, claims have fluctuated between 201,000 and 230,000, aligning with economists’ “low hiring, low firing” characterization. Economists link the labor market’s stagnation to ongoing uncertainty from former President Trump’s aggressive import tariff policies. Additionally, the one-month U.S.-Israel war against Iran has added another layer of uncertainty for businesses. A Reuters survey of economists projects March nonfarm payrolls will rebound by roughly 60,000 jobs, but some warn the surge may be temporary—driven by a global oil price jump of over 50% amid the conflict. Nancy Vanden Houten, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, noted: “We expect the war to slow the modest labor market improvement we anticipated earlier this year, as businesses pause hiring amid uncertainty, weaker consumer spending, and rising costs.” (Source: Golden Finance)