10x Research: The Bitcoin Halving Cycle still exists, but the driving forces have shifted from halving to politics and liquidity

On December 14, Cointelegraph reported that Markus Thielen, managing director at 10x Research, noted Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact—but its primary drivers are no longer the halving, but instead political factors, the liquidity environment, and election cycles. Bitcoin hit all-time highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021. This year, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, Bitcoin has failed to mount a strong upward push. The reason? Institutional investors now dominate the crypto market but are far more cautious. With Fed policy signals still uncertain and overall liquidity tightening, capital inflows have slowed noticeably, weakening the momentum needed for price breakouts. Until liquidity improves significantly, Bitcoin is more likely to trade in a range than quickly enter a new parabolic uptrend.