Viewpoint: Bitcoin's Demand Structure Change is Reshaping Cycle Behavior

On November 18th, Sentora (formerly known as IntoTheBlock) stated in a post that Bitcoin long-term holders typically accumulate during bear markets and distribute during bull markets, thus forming a "cup-shaped" cyclic pattern. The current decline is relatively gradual because long-term holders have not actively participated in "buying the dip," suggesting a change in cyclic behavior. The increase in institutional funds, structured products, and regulated investment tools is influencing the timing and manner in which market demand emerges. Recent market caution has suppressed spot buying pressure, and significant selling pressure has even emerged in the past two weeks. In the long term, a Bitcoin bear market may still occur, but its characteristics may depend more on valuation, investment directives, and risk frameworks rather than on panic and euphoria. The participation of professional capital may assist in forming a more stable market bottom, but downside risks still exist. Future price trends will be less influenced by panic and euphoria and more dependent on how professional capital determines position sizing and entry timing.