Analysis: Bitcoin's drop was triggered by the US liquidity crunch and sustained selling pressure from US investors.

On November 14th, the analysis released by XWIN Research under CryptoQuant pointed out that the recent drop of Bitcoin below $100,000 was not merely a market fluctuation but the result of multiple U.S.-centered structural pressures overlapping. On-chain data strongly indicates that U.S. investors are the main driving force behind the current downward trend. Firstly, the Coinbase premium index has been significantly negative for several weeks, suggesting that the selling pressure from U.S. investors is much stronger than the buying pressure from Asia or Europe. This is in line with the recent recurring pattern: Bitcoin rebounds during the Asian session but experiences a notable reversal during the U.S. trading session. Secondly, long-term holders (LTH) of all age groups are selling off synchronously. Analysts such as Will Clemente have pointed out that the selling pressure is not coming from a specific group but is occurring simultaneously among holders with 6 months, 18 months, 3 years, and even 7 years of holding. This situation is very unusual and strongly indicates that U.S. investors are engaged in year-end tax optimization. Fidelity has also confirmed that many U.S. LTH are taking profits to finalize their annual position settlement. Thirdly, the U.S. government shutdown has led to severe liquidity tightening. With federal spending forced to stop, the government has rarely had a fiscal surplus, draining billions of dollars of liquidity from the system. Coupled with the dampening of expectations for a December rate cut, the overall risk appetite in the U.S. has significantly decreased. The U.S. stock market has generally declined, with crypto-related stocks plummeting by 10–20%, and Bitcoin has also experienced a liquidity-driven pullback. In conclusion, these factors form a clear story: the current adjustment is mainly driven by the U.S. Structural selling by long-term holders, liquidity reduction due to fiscal tightening, and the persistent weakness during the U.S. session, which have collectively amplified market volatility. As liquidity gradually recovers in the coming weeks, market conditions may stabilize, but short-term pressures will continue to be heavily influenced by U.S. market dynamics.