Bitunix Analyst: "Black Box Economy" US Employment Could Be the Fed's Final Straw for Rate Cut

November 10th. With the U.S. government shutdown entering its second month, official economic data became unavailable. As a result, the market had to rely on private reports to piece together the economic landscape. Data from sources such as ADP and Challenger showed that the resilience of the job market was fading. There was a significant increase in layoffs, a slowdown in hiring, and a sharp drop in consumer confidence, forming multiple signals of economic cooling. This "dataless economy" anomaly has instead quickly focused the market's attention on the next steps in policy. Structurally, corporate profits continue to be driven by AI productivity, but workers have not been able to share the benefits. A wave of layoffs in the technology and retail sectors has intensified. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index hit a three-year low. Asset differentiation and class anxiety are eroding the foundation of the recovery. This "K-shaped economy" has exacerbated the policy dilemma facing the Federal Reserve: inflation remains sticky while employment is rapidly cooling. Bitunix analysts stated: As the economy enters a data blind spot, decision-makers are more likely to be guided by "situational intuition." In the absence of official indicators, the Fed must rely on market signals and changes in financial conditions to assess the turning point of the cycle. When both layoffs and confidence indices are declining, the "rate cut expectation" is no longer a market fantasy but a result of the inevitable policy transmission catch-up. In the coming weeks, the U.S. economic black box may open a new round of global liquidity volatility.