QCP: The Foundation for Bitcoin's Next Rebound Appears to Have Been Established

On October 15th, QCP issued a daily perspective stating: Following a volatile weekend, risk assets have stabilized. Stocks are about 1.5% away from recent highs, and Bitcoin is about 10% away from its peak. This rebound is partly fueled by the market's anticipation of interest rate cuts. Futures contracts currently anticipate a cumulative 125 basis point cut by the end of 2026. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated the plan to cut rates by another 0.25% this month, providing short-term support for risk sentiment. Even though a government shutdown delayed the release of key labor data. Gold remains in the spotlight and surged to a historical high of $4,022 per ounce (up 52% year-to-date). This is driven by strong central bank reserve accumulation and declining real yields. The market narrative is shifting from interest rate sensitivity to liquidity-driven. Central bank purchases, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging have become the main drivers of gold's rise, positioning it far beyond its traditional role as an inflation hedge. Despite the weekend's market volatility, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold exceeded 0.85, showing a high degree of synchronization in the flow of funds between traditional and digital store-of-value tools. As gold continued to hit new highs, Bitcoin briefly touched a new high before the weekend. With institutional treasuries continuing to increase their positions and ETF flows remaining strong (yesterday, BTC ETF inflows of $102.7 million and ETH ETF inflows of $236.2 million), the foundation for a new round of rebound seems to have been laid.