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Arthur Hayes New Article: Bitcoin's Four-Year Bull Market Cycle May Have Failed, with USD and RMB Liquidity Becoming Key Variables

2025.10.09 12:16:41

On October 9th. The co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, released a new article titled "Long Live the King!". In this article, he stated that each peak of the Bitcoin bull market is related to the "price and supply" changes of the US Dollar and the Chinese Yuan. Currently, this cycle is different from the regular four-year pattern in the past. He reviewed three cycles from 2009 to 2021: when the growth of USD/CNY credit slows down or contracts and interest rates rise, Bitcoin reaches its peak and then declines; when the US Dollar undergoes large-scale quantitative easing (QE), helicopter money, or when China experiences strong credit expansion, the price of Bitcoin strengthens. The article indicates that the Federal Reserve's tendency to lower interest rates and expand the money supply is in line with China's signal of ending deflation and moderately increasing credit, which may potentially prolong this current upward trend.
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