Matrixport: US Macro Data Weakness May Trigger Market Turbulence, Bitcoin Rally Hard to Sustain

Beating AI News: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned at the UN Security Council that without effective governance, AI could pose existential risks to all humanity, and called on countries to establish global AI safety standards. Amodei, who attended the Security Council meeting via video on Wednesday, said AI could be used by malicious actors to develop bioweapons, and may eventually evolve into an uncontrolled system beyond developers’ control. For safety reasons, Anthropic will slow down its AI R&D pace. Amodei also called for the establishment of an AI safety certification framework and pushed for global regulatory cooperation, urging nations to coordinate efforts to prevent AI from being used in bioweapons. He emphasized that no single leader, company, or country can address the challenges posed by AI alone. Additionally, Amodei noted that AI is driving progress in the life sciences: Anthropic’s Claude has contributed to the discovery of a new enzyme system with CRISPR-like DNA repeats, though related technologies could also carry catastrophic risks. This statement follows the AI safety proposal Amodei put forward earlier this month. Both Anthropic and OpenAI are at the core of competition in cutting-edge AI models, and their R&D pace and safety policies have drawn close attention from investors and regulators.

TSMC has confirmed it will adjust wafer fabrication prices starting January 2027 based on process nodes, with an overall increase of 3% to 6%. Advanced processes such as 2nm and 3nm will see the highest hikes, while mature and specialty processes will be priced on a case-by-case basis depending on products, capacity utilization rates, and customer conditions. Currently, TSMC’s 8-inch wafer fabs are operating at over 100% capacity utilization, with processes below 45nm running at full capacity, and some order visibility extending as far as 2030. AI data center expansion is not only driving sustained demand for GPUs, ASICs, and HBM, but also boosting orders for mature-process chips including PMICs, MCUs, MOSFETs, and analog ICs. Supply chain sources note that 2nm and 3nm capacity remains tight, while capacity bottlenecks for advanced packaging like CoWoS have not been fully resolved, making it difficult for customers to avoid price hikes by switching suppliers in the short term. The price adjustment is also expected to ripple out to other foundries including Samsung Electronics, Intel, UMC, and Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), as well as sectors such as packaging and testing, and IC design. Industry insiders point out that growing demand for chips including power management units, network communication, and optical communication from AI servers has caused AI demand to spill over from advanced to mature processes, driving a rebound in capacity utilization for mature processes that previously faced weak supply-demand balances, and strengthening foundries’ bargaining power. Additionally, the heavy capital expenditure and cost pressures from TSMC’s overseas fab construction are also among the factors behind the price hike. Supply chain sources forecast that the 2027 wafer foundry price hikes may further push up costs across sectors including packaging and testing, substrates, materials, and memory.

11 Democratic senators on the U.S. Senate Banking Committee are urging committee chair Tim Scott to hold a hearing on prediction markets, following the panel’s plan to host a Republican-only roundtable on the topic next week. The roundtable will focus on securities-based prediction markets, with a representative from Kalshi expected to attend. Currently, primary regulatory authority over prediction markets falls to the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); the Banking Committee’s planned discussion is seen as a further move by the panel to engage with the prediction market issue.

Bitcoin recently broke through $80,000 and hit a high of $87,300. Analysts note the current rally is backed by strong inflows from institutional capital and spot Bitcoin ETFs, but metrics including trading volume, market breadth, and derivatives positions have sparked debate over whether the uptrend can sustain. K33 points out that Bitcoin’s recent pullback in both magnitude and duration is significantly smaller than those during major bear markets in 2013, 2017, and 2021, suggesting the current cycle’s low may have already been established. The firm also adds that Bitcoin still has catch-up potential relative to gold and U.S. equities. 21Shares attributes the crypto market’s regulatory tailwinds to the U.S. SEC’s “innovation exemption” and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) advancing relevant rulemaking. K33 further notes that fading uncertainties—such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and the vote on the CLARITY Act—also helped drive the market’s breakout. However, Nexo takes a cautious stance, highlighting that recent declines in trading volume, narrowing rally breadth, and rising derivatives leverage could expose Bitcoin to risks of profit-taking or a temporary correction. Capital.com’s analysts identify the $87,000–$88,000 range as the near-term resistance zone; a breakout would target $90,000 next, while key support levels to watch are $84,000–$85,000 and $80,000. Fundstrat founder Tom Lee claims the crypto bull market has already begun, citing drivers including the reflow of AI capital back into crypto markets, improved crypto fundamentals such as tokenization and AI integration, and the end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.

US SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda stated that the agency has dropped several cryptocurrency cases inherited from the previous administration. The reason is that continuing to defend legal interpretations set to be overturned in court could harm the SEC’s credibility. Uyeda noted that as the SEC prepares to make a "180-degree shift" in its relevant legal interpretations, he does not want the agency’s litigation attorneys to keep defending its prior stance in court. He added that sticking to positions ultimately set to be overturned would "damage the SEC’s reputation". Furthermore, Uyeda referred to the SEC’s "innovation exemption" for tokenized securities as a "pilot program", arguing that this mechanism could create "significant potential opportunities" for new market entrants and traditional financial institutions.

Visa’s “Money Travels 2026” report reveals that if stablecoins offer bank-equivalent fraud protection and deposit insurance, U.S. consumers’ willingness to use stablecoins for cross-border transfers will climb from 36% to 56%. The survey identifies stablecoin awareness as a major barrier: 56% of U.S. respondents said they have never heard of stablecoins. When stablecoins are offered by existing financial service providers, that willingness rises to 45%; 61% of respondents said they would trust traditional banks to provide digital currency services, while 60% would trust global payment networks. Visa notes that stablecoins currently do not carry FDIC deposit insurance, adding that the data is based solely on hypothetical scenarios and does not mean such protections are imminent. Conducted by Morning Consult between February 24 and March 2, the survey covered 45,445 people across 20 markets, including 2,192 U.S. adults. In Latin America, willingness to use stablecoins for cross-border transfers jumps from 34% to 74% when the relevant protections are in place.