Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Enters Healthy Consolidation Phase, Short-Term Holders Take Profits or Trigger Sell Pressure

On May 27th, Bitfinex Alpha released a report indicating that following its all-time high in January, Bitcoin witnessed a 32% decline. However, it then saw a robust rebound of over 50%, reaching a new high of $111,880. Currently, it has entered a healthy consolidation phase. Strong ETF inflows, a surge in spot market participation, and positive growth in "realized net capital" have driven structural buying pressure in the market rather than excessive speculation. Despite a slight decrease in macro risk appetite, such as the possibility of the US imposing a 50% tariff on European imports, Bitcoin has remained resilient - no significant drop has occurred during the process of deleveraging and taking profits. This resilience is attracting market attention to Bitcoin evolving into a "macro-sensitive, belief-driven asset," where its trading behavior is now more closely correlated with global liquidity trends rather than retail sentiment. It is worth noting that the Japanese company Metaplanet increased its Bitcoin holdings by $104 million, and the state of Michigan in the US proposed legislation favorable to crypto assets, further validating the growing institutional and policy support for digital assets. Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can continue to maintain consolidation above its short-term holder cost basis (around $95,000) will be crucial. In the past month, short-term holders have realized profits exceeding $11.4 billion, so there may be some selling pressure in the short term, but structural demand still exists. The strength of ETF buying, low volatility, and premium signals in the spot market indicate that the market is maturing, and once the macro environment improves, further upside may be on the horizon. Currently, the next few weeks will determine whether Bitcoin's recent breakout is a phase top or the prelude to a stronger rally in the third quarter.