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Matrixport: Bitcoin Breaks $100,000 Again, Still Prefers Bullish Call Spread Options

2025.05.09 15:40:42

On May 9th, Matrixport presented its weekly market report as follows: In the past 18 months, global monetary policy has significantly influenced the capital flows into digital assets. With interest rates remaining at a high level, traditional investors have started to reevaluate their risk allocations, and the communication of the Federal Reserve's policy has become crucial. The minutes of the November FOMC meeting held on December 7, 2024, dashed the market's expectation of four rate cuts in 2025 and revised the rate cut expectation down to two. On-chain data has exposed the degree of market differentiation. Bitcoin's market dominance (calculated as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization) has increased from 49% in the early days of the ETE era to the current 64.5%, a level not seen since the 2021 DeFi boom. This trend has brought the highest risk-adjusted returns among various core metrics of digital assets, reflecting a preference for quality assets. Retail investor sentiment remains low, with trading volumes on CEX and DeFi protocols reaching multi-year lows. Due to the lack of a clear market theme - neither a new disruptive DeFi application nor a significant breakthrough in Layer-2 technology or a widespread meme coin frenzy - retail investors generally choose to continue observing. The Northern Hemisphere summer usually exacerbates this trend, as the holiday season leads to a decrease in trading activity. Since December 2024, the discussion volume on meme coin-related topics on social media has dropped by more than 40%, while Bitcoin-related discussions remain high, reflecting the market's sustained interest in Bitcoin as a macro hedge asset. In the absence of significant catalysts, it is difficult to form meme-driven rallies for meme coins. Given that technical, macroeconomic, and market structure factors all have negative impacts on meme coins, the current clearest tactical position is to continue to maintain a long position in Bitcoin through spot or perpetual futures and use meme coin perpetual futures as a hedging tool. The funding rate of meme coin perpetual contracts remains low.
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