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On November 20th, based on the data from the CME FedWatch Tool, after the Fed released the minutes of the October meeting, the market's likelihood of a rate cut in December decreased to 31.6%, and the probability of no rate cut reached 68.4%. Before the data was released (1:00 AM Beijing time today), the market was anticipating a 51.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December and a 48.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged.

On November 20th, Nick Timiraos, renowned as the "Fed Whisperer" from The Wall Street Journal, made a post on social media. It was indicated that the Fed meeting minutes confirmed the gradually emerging market consensus after the meeting. Currently, a slight majority of officials are inclined to keep rates unchanged in December. The sentiment of "many" weighs more than the "digits". The outcome of the December interest rate meeting is becoming increasingly unpredictable.

November 20th. The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting indicated that the Fed's decision-making body was deeply divided during the rate cut last month. Although policymakers warned that rate cuts could impede efforts to control inflation - with U.S. inflation remaining above the 2% target for the past four and a half years - they ultimately decided to lower the rate. The minutes of the meeting disclosed: "Many participants were in favor of reducing the federal funds rate target range," but at the same time, it was noted that some members who supported maintaining the status quo found that option acceptable. Several officials directly opposed the rate cut, "expressing concerns that the committee's progress in achieving the 2% inflation target had stalled and noting that if inflation did not promptly return to 2%, long-term inflation expectations could rise." The minutes further stated: "Most participants noted that further lowering the policy rate could exacerbate

On November 20th, the minutes of the Fed meeting revealed that policymakers were divided regarding whether to support the rate cut decision at the current meeting and whether a rate cut in December was justified. Several participants indicated that, based on their current outlook, keeping rates unchanged for the rest of the year would be appropriate. Meanwhile, many officials also anticipated a rate cut in December. (FXStreet)

On November 20th, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting indicated that several participants emphasized the potential for a disorderly decline in the stock market, particularly in the case of a sudden re-evaluation of the outlook related to AI. The SOMA (System Open Market Account) manager proposed that the Federal Reserve should promptly stop asset tapering because excessive volatility in the repo market would pose risks to the Fed's rate control and the Treasury market. (Golden Ten)

November 20th: The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting revealed that several participants were opposed to a rate cut. Many participants stated that, based on their current outlook, it is appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year. (FXStreet)