Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Glassnode: In the late stage of Bitcoin's bottoming process, the scale of realized losses has reached its highest point since December 2022.

Glassnode says Bitcoin is in the late stages of bottom formation, but capitulation selling by long-term holders remains elevated, with the recent peak in realized losses approaching $280 million daily — the highest level since December 2022. Glassnode notes that this metric needs to shrink significantly for the market to credibly shift back into a bullish state. Last week, Bitcoin rebounded from $58,300 to $64,400 before pulling back to $62,700, and still trades below the short-term holders' cost base of roughly $72,200 and the True Market Mean of around $76,600. Net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have narrowed but remain negative.

Bitcoin breaks through $63,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through the $63,000 mark, with a 0.74% rise in the past 24 hours.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $84.9 million.

According to Farside’s monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $84.9 million yesterday, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone seeing total net outflows of $59.1 million.

Glassnode: Bitcoin has not yet completed its bottoming, with derivatives market sentiment leaning toward cautious bullishness.

Glassnode’s report states that Bitcoin has stayed below key investor holding costs for the past five months and remains in a deep value zone. Selling activity from long-term holders has peaked, while overall Bitcoin spot ETF flows continue to register net outflows. Derivatives market sentiment leans toward cautious bullishness, but options pricing still reflects investors’ concerns about downside risks. Overall, Bitcoin is in the process of bottoming but has not yet completed its bottom formation.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have flared up again, Bitcoin slipped slightly, and the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed.

U.S. Central Command said early this morning that, at the direction of the U.S. President, the U.S. military has launched further strikes on Iranian targets, aiming to weaken Iran’s ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. stated that Iran has recently carried out "unjustified attacks" on commercial vessels and civilian crew sailing in the international waterway, and the U.S. will hold those responsible accountable. Iran’s Armed Forces Missile Corps and Drone Corps announced they will launch large-scale strikes on U.S. military bases in the Middle East "within minutes". Later, CNN reported that U.S. President Donald Trump said, "They (Iran) just called, they want to make a deal." According to Bitget market data, Bitcoin dipped slightly to $62,214, with a 2.03% drop in the past 24 hours. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. stocks closed on Wednesday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.09%, the S&P 500 declined 0.28%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Micron Technology (MU.O) gained 1%, NVIDIA (NVDA.O) rose 3.6%, and SanDisk (SNDK.O) increased 6.7%.

Michael Saylor: Concerns over Bitcoin block space shortage are gradually easing, while global transfers still maintain low fees.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor published an article noting that after a decade of concerns over insufficient block space and controversies surrounding non-monetary use cases, Bitcoin still has no so-called "spam transaction problem." Currently, Bitcoin network fees stand at approximately 1 sat/vB, enabling anyone to quickly transfer any amount of Bitcoin globally for roughly $0.3. Free market mechanisms have been consistently resolving the challenges facing Bitcoin's block space.

Bitcoin Reserve Company BSTR Seeks to Amend Its SPAC Merger Agreement with Cantor

According to Bloomberg, a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) backed by Cantor Fitzgerald and Bitcoin reserve firm BSTR, led by Adam Back, announced they have scrapped the original terms of their proposed merger and will renegotiate a revised agreement. Amid a tightening crypto market environment and growing headwinds for Bitcoin reserve-focused firms, the two parties have opted to adjust the transaction structure. Cantor Equity Partners I Inc. and BSTR Holdings said Wednesday they will no longer advance the deal under the merger agreement signed last year, instead aiming to draft revised terms that better reflect current market conditions. Neither company disclosed specific financial details of the new transaction, nor did they provide a timeline for when a new agreement could be finalized.

A SpaceX-tagged address has moved a small amount of Bitcoin (BTC) for the first time in six months, and the transfer is suspected to be a test transaction.

According to Arkham’s monitoring, an address labeled SpaceX has transferred Bitcoin for the first time in six months. Data shows that SpaceX address 15atF initiated a BTC test transaction to SpaceX address bc1q9, worth approximately $88, which is suspected to be a test transfer.

Bitcoin fell below $62,000, with a 2.1% drop in the past 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $62,000, with a 2.1% decline in the past 24 hours.

Michael Saylor: If Bitcoin’s long-term gains exceed 3.3%, BTC capital gains can indefinitely fund STRC dividends.

Michael Saylor said in a post today that if Bitcoin’s long-term growth exceeds 3.3%, capital gains from Bitcoin (BTC) can indefinitely fund STRC’s dividends. Even if BTC delivers 0% annual growth, Strategy still has sufficient capital to cover 31 years of dividend payments.

A crypto whale opened a 40x short position worth $31 million in Bitcoin, and is now sitting on an unrealized profit of $112,400.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, whale address 0x77ee recently opened a 40x leveraged short position on Hyperliquid for 493 BTC (valued at approximately $31.08 million), with an entry price of $63,240.9 and a liquidation price of $73,962.2. The position currently has an unrealized profit of around $112,400, delivering a return on equity (ROE) of 14.47%. Data shows the address holds a total of 15 positions, with a total position size of roughly $79.79 million, 92% of which are short positions. That said, the address’s cumulative historical trading losses still amount to $5.66 million.

Polymarket launches instant Bitcoin Lightning Network deposits, integrates Spark Protocol.

Prediction market platform Polymarket has announced support for instant, self-custodial deposits via the Bitcoin Lightning Network, with the new feature backed by the Spark Protocol. Compared to prior on-chain deposit methods that required waiting for 3 to 6 block confirmations and took 10 to 60 minutes, the new solution delivers near-instant settlement while lowering deposit barriers and transaction costs. According to details, Spark can conduct checks for double-spend risks, transaction fees, and Replace-by-Fee (RBF) at the time of transaction broadcast, enabling "zero-confirmation" posting. It also supports on-chain, Lightning Network, and stablecoin payment rails, removing the need for the platform to operate its own Lightning Network nodes. Polymarket noted that this step will further boost Bitcoin users' capital efficiency and strengthen its competitiveness against rival Kalshi.

Strike launches volatility-resistant Bitcoin-collateralized loans, eliminating the margin call mechanism.

Strike has launched a new "Volatility-Proof" Bitcoin mortgage product that eliminates margin calls and forced liquidations triggered by Bitcoin price declines. Jack Mallers noted that regardless of how much Bitcoin’s price drops, as long as borrowers make timely repayments, their pledged Bitcoin will not be liquidated due to price fluctuations. The new product features a maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 45%, a 6-month term, and an annual percentage rate (APR) ranging from roughly 10.7% to 14.2% — higher than Strike’s standard loan offerings. Should a borrower default, they must repay within 10 days or coordinate with the platform; otherwise, Strike retains the right to sell a portion of the Bitcoin collateral to cover the outstanding balance. The company added that the product is now available in most U.S. states, applicable for new loans, refinancing, and debt consolidation.

Bitcoin emerged as the 'most resilient' asset tonight, while US chip stocks suffered a 'stock market crash' and crypto stocks declined broadly in line with the broader US stock market.

According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. stocks opened lower and trended downward during Tuesday’s trading session. The Nasdaq 100 Index fell over 2%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 6%. SPCX declined 5.7%, MRVL fell 10.25%, Western Digital dropped 11%, SanDisk slid 13.9%, Micron fell 8.8%, and Oracle decreased 4%. Bitcoin only dropped nearly 1% after U.S. stock markets opened, a decline on par with gold, but U.S.-listed crypto stocks have fallen in line with the broader market, with SBET down 5.2%, GEMI down 6.12%, CRCL down 5.35%, MSTR down 3.3%, and COIN down 4%.

Tether has invested $20 million in Mercado Bitcoin to support the construction of on-chain financial infrastructure in Latin America.

Tether announced it will invest $20 million in the strategic growth funding round of Latin American on-chain financial services platform Mercado Bitcoin, to support its expansion in tokenization, payments, credit, capital markets, and regulated digital financial services. Founded in 2013, Mercado Bitcoin originally launched as a digital asset trading platform and has since evolved into a comprehensive on-chain financial platform covering trading infrastructure, tokenized investment products, credit and lending, stablecoin payments, banking infrastructure, and cross-border financial services. The company currently serves 4.5 million users, has issued over R$2 billion in tokenized assets, and holds more than 10 licenses in Brazil and Europe.

Peter Brandt Considers Selling Part of His Bitcoin to Buy Gold

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who accurately predicted the 2018 Bitcoin crash, has stated in a post that he is considering selling a portion of his Bitcoin holdings and reallocating the proceeds to gold. Based on current market trends, gold could see a substantial rally relative to Bitcoin.

Analysis: Weak demand persists in the US market, Bitcoin's July rally may struggle to sustain

Multiple indicators show Bitcoin’s July rally remains fragile. One of the most closely watched metrics, the Coinbase Premium Index, has been negative for 50 consecutive days. The index measures the price gap of BTC between U.S. exchange Coinbase and Binance. BTC’s price on Coinbase has consistently lagged that on Binance, indicating relatively weak demand in the U.S. market. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows for 8 straight weeks, while historically, Bitcoin bull markets are typically accompanied by a consistently positive Coinbase Premium Index. Japanese bond yields have continued to climb, with the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield hitting a 30-year high and pushing up borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K., and Germany. If U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, this could act as a headwind for BTC. Bitfinex analysts noted that structural institutional buying has not been confirmed until BlackRock’s IBIT resumes consistent net inflows. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital said that if spot Bitcoin ETFs sustain the inflow trend seen since last Friday, the short-term outlook remains constructive. The firm added that if BTC firmly reclaims the $64,000 level this week, it will further boost market sentiment and ease concerns over publicly traded Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy (MSTR).

Strive CEO: No need to sell the company's reserve Bitcoin holdings even if Bitcoin falls to 1 cent.

Strive CEO Matt Cole said in an interview that even if Bitcoin falls to 1 cent and remains at that level for 18 months, Strive will face no issues, does not need to take any action, and will not have to sell a single BTC. No price level will trigger a forced liquidation for Strive.

Polymarket Sued Over Dispute Concerning Bitcoin Prediction Market Ruling Linked to Strategy’s Sale

Two plaintiffs have filed a lawsuit against Polymarket, alleging breach of contract and fraudulent conduct in a prediction market tied to whether Strategy would sell its Bitcoin holdings by the end of May. According to the complaint filed in New York State Supreme Court on July 3, plaintiffs William Wood and Thomas Bush named Polymarket, its CEO Shayne Coplan, CMO Matthew Modabber, and other related entities and individuals as defendants. The complaint states the two held "Yes" positions in a binary prediction market with the question: whether Strategy would sell any Bitcoin holdings by May 31. Per Strategy’s Form 8-K filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the firm did sell 32 Bitcoin (BTC) between May 26 and 31. However, the plaintiffs say Polymarket ultimately ruled the market "No". They allege the platform added a clarification ahead of settlement, effectively shifting the judgment criteria from "whether the sale was completed by May 31" to "whether the sale was publicly confirmed by May 31". Due to this criteria change, even though Strategy sold Bitcoin within the deadline, the prediction market was ultimately ruled "No" on June 3 via a UMA vote — Polymarket’s mechanism for resolving disputed markets.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative premium for 50 consecutive days, extending its all-time longest streak.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has stayed in negative premium territory for 50 consecutive days since May 19, with the latest reading at -0.0742%, extending the longest consecutive negative premium record since the index’s launch. Prior to this, the index recorded 40 straight days in negative premium from January 16 to February 24 this year, surpassing the previous record of roughly 30 consecutive days set during the "1011 Crash". Historical data indicates that prolonged negative premium is typically accompanied by U.S. institutional capital outflows, or signals that the market faces certain short-term correction pressure.

USDT is returning to the Bitcoin network, as UTEXO prepares to natively issue Bitcoin-based USDT via the RGB protocol.

Tether is preparing to issue USDT natively on the Bitcoin network based on the RGB v0.11.1 protocol, with UTEXO responsible for commercial issuance and distribution. This marks USDT’s return to the Bitcoin mainchain years after its first launch on Bitcoin via the Omni protocol in 2014. Viktor Ihnatiuk, co-founder of UTEXO, stated that the company has secured Tether’s support to advance the launch of Bitcoin-native USDT. The RGB protocol adopts client-side validation and integrates with the Lightning Network, enabling USDT to achieve instant, low-cost, private transactions while inheriting Bitcoin’s UTXO security model. Users will be able to hold USDT directly via native Bitcoin addresses and send/receive it through RGB-enabled Lightning Network wallets, without relying on other public chains or intermediary service providers. Compared to current USDT’s primary circulation on account-model networks like TRON and Ethereum, RGB leverages the UTXO model to natively support one-time addresses and combines with the Lightning Network for off-chain payments, effectively enhancing transaction privacy. Additionally, UTEXO has deep integration with Tether to reduce intermediary fees and data collection, and users can also convert USDT across different public chains at low cost via its already launched cross-chain bridge.

Bernstein maintains its year-end Bitcoin price target of $150,000, noting the current cycle’s pullback is milder than historical cycles.

Despite Bitcoin’s price having pulled back roughly 54% from its near-$125,000 peak in October 2025, Bernstein has maintained its year-end target price of $150,000. The firm notes that this cycle’s pullback is significantly smaller than the 75% to 90% declines typical in the final stages of historical cycles, signaling a notable shift in market structure. Against the backdrop of current weak market sentiment, the clear target price set by the Wall Street firm can serve as a price anchor for the market, while the historical pullback framework helps traders assess risks. If this cycle aligns with historical trends, the market could still see further declines, though the firm’s outlook for a subsequent recovery remains noteworthy. Bernstein points out that the October 2025 near-$125,000 peak remains a key reference resistance level; calculated based on a historical 75% pullback, the corresponding price is roughly $31,000, viewed as a critical zone. Going forward, focus will center on whether Bitcoin spot ETF inflows and spot demand rebound, a key signal to determine if the market enters a recovery phase.

Analyst: Bitcoin’s apparent demand has been almost consistently negative this year, but has recently improved.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand has stayed nearly in negative territory all year, reflecting persistent weak market demand — a key reason for Bitcoin’s ongoing price pressure. However, recent demand has seen some improvement, helping BTC consolidate within its current price range. On June 3, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand hit an annual low of -275,000 BTC, and has since rebounded to around -75,000 BTC. While the improvement is notable, a full demand recovery will require the metric to stay consistently positive. He explained that the Apparent Demand metric is calculated as the difference between newly issued BTC supply and BTC supply that has not moved for over a year, used to measure whether long-term holders’ structural accumulation is enough to absorb the network’s new supply. So far, long-term demand has recovered somewhat but not enough to push the market into a new uptrend.

Asia-Pacific stock markets plunged sharply, putting pressure on Bitcoin, which briefly fell below $63,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has remained under pressure since the opening of Asia-Pacific stock markets this morning, falling below $63,000 and currently trading at $62,886.82, with a 0.95% decline in the past 24 hours. According to Bitget market data, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has fallen 2.00% on the day. South Korea’s KOSPI index triggered circuit breakers twice, plummeting 8%.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $265.7 million yesterday, marking the second consecutive day of net inflows exceeding $200 million.

According to monitoring by Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $265.7 million yesterday, with IBIT alone attracting $209.4 million. Additionally, Ethereum ETFs posted a net inflow of $20.7 million, among which ETHA recorded a net inflow of $23.3 million. Analysts noted that the cooling of the U.S. stock market’s AI boom may have led some funds exiting the sector to partially replenish oversold crypto ETFs.

Yilihua: Bitcoin must strongly break through $68,000 to confirm a reversal; if it fails to do so, it will probe for a bottom again.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yilihua stated, "Bitcoin remains in a weekly downtrend. Only a strong breakout above $68,000 will spark a meaningful reversal; failing that, it will retest the bottom, and we hope it avoids the worst-case scenario of dropping below $47,000." "In any event, we are fully preparing to buy the dip in the coming months—be greedy when others are fearful. Beyond major cryptocurrencies, we are also scouting for the next bull run’s 100x coin. During the last cycle, our dip investment in Render rallied nearly 180 times at its peak. While most tokens are junk, a tiny subset holds massive opportunities: first, they have fallen over 95% from their highs; second, the founding team is competent, aligned with trends and core needs like AI; ideally, they have solid finances, preferably profitable. Projects meeting these criteria can be recommended."

A prominent trader noted that Strategy’s Bitcoin sale via over-the-counter (OTC) trades will exert limited influence on spot prices, with Bitcoin potentially rising to as high as $65,600.

Prominent trader Killa (@KillaXBT) stated that Bitcoin can target $65,600 if it holds its closing level from last week (around $59,000). Additionally, regarding Strategy’s historic sale of 3,588 BTC, Killa explained that the firm did not conduct the sale on the open market but via institutional trades, which helped avoid a major impact on Bitcoin’s price. This partially accounts for Bitcoin’s overnight trend of falling first then rising. Killa, a BTC-focused quantitative trader, predicted the peak of the current bull market in May 2025 and boasts over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and shifted to a long position during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

Bitcoin breaks through $64,000 against the trend; trader "Maji" adds to long positions, with weekly profit exceeding $400,000.

Overnight to early this morning, Bitcoin initially dipped then rallied amid negative news of Strategy’s historic sell-off of 3,588 BTC, leading major cryptocurrencies to rebound. According to HTX market data, as of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $64,007.31, up 0.81% in 24 hours; Ethereum stands at $1,797, with a 24-hour gain of 0.51%. Additionally, per HyperInsight monitoring, trader "Maji" added positions throughout the market rebound, with his Ethereum long positions now totaling $17.08 million and a liquidation price of $1,765.32. However, amid the strong market rally, Maji’s profits over the past week have exceeded $400,000.

Nasdaq-listed firm Empery Digital added 1,200 Bitcoin to its holdings over the past six days.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Nasdaq-listed company Empery Digital has received an additional 200 BTC, worth about $12.84 million. Over the past six days, the firm has accumulated a total of 1200 BTC in holdings, valued at roughly $72.65 million.

Bitcoin breaks through $63,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through $63,000, posting a 1.13% gain in the last 24 hours.

Influenced by news that Strategy sold Bitcoin to pay dividends, STRC rebounded to break above $90.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), Strategy’s preferred stock STRC has rebounded above $90, trading at $90.125, with a 2.57% intraday gain. Earlier reports noted that Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin last week, generating $216 million in proceeds to pay dividends on its digital credit securities. As of July 5, the company’s Bitcoin reserves fell to 843,775 coins, alongside $2.55 billion in U.S. dollar reserves.

American Bitcoin adds 500 BTC to its holdings, bringing its total BTC holdings to 8,000.

Bitcoin mining firm American Bitcoin, backed by the Trump family, has increased its holdings by 500 BTC, bringing its total position to 8,000 BTC.

Trump responds to whether the "Trump account" includes Bitcoin: "It might happen."

According to Reuters, when asked whether the "Trump account" might hold Bitcoin, Trump stated: "It could happen."

Viewpoint: Strategy’s BTC sale helps restore market confidence in STRC and mitigate short-term tail risks for Bitcoin

Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl published a note stating that in his view, Strategy’s sale of Bitcoin is a necessary move to restore market confidence in STRC and its overall structure. Last week’s partial Bitcoin sale by Strategy further reduced short-term tail risks for Bitcoin, and STRC is expected to continue performing well going forward. As previously reported, Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin last week, generating $216 million in proceeds to pay dividends on its digital credit securities. As of July 5, the company’s Bitcoin reserves stood at 843,775 coins, alongside $2.55 billion in U.S. dollar reserves.

Cantor: Restoring STRC to its face value is Strategy’s top priority, and it will restart its Bitcoin purchase engine.

Wall Street investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald, after meeting with Strategy’s Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, stated that restoring preferred stock STRC to its $100 par value is the company’s top priority and key to restarting its bitcoin purchase engine and improving its capital structure. Cantor believes Strategy will continue to build cash reserves for STRC dividends to drive the stock’s price back to par, and may take measures such as share repurchases if necessary. A recovery in STRC is expected to benefit the company’s common stock (MSTR), paving the way for subsequent stock offerings to raise funds and continue increasing its bitcoin holdings. Earlier, Strategy announced it had sold approximately $216 million worth of bitcoin to fund STRC dividend payments. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase warned last week that the practice of selling bitcoin to pay preferred stock dividends could increase the company’s risk exposure and market volatility.

Strive added 17.76 Bitcoin to its holdings last week, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings increase in Q2 to 6,236.

According to Strive's official announcement, the company purchased 17.76 Bitcoin last week, bringing its total BTC holdings to 19,882 coins. More notably, Strive added a total of 6,236 Bitcoin in Q2 2026, achieving a 24.0% BTC yield, generating a BTC Gain of 3,264 Bitcoin, with an amplification ratio of 67.2% at quarter-end.

MicroStrategy posted an unrealized loss of $8.31 billion in the second quarter, and has been selling Bitcoin in batches since the end of June.

Strategy released updated data showing that as of July 5, the company’s U.S. dollar reserve balance stood at $2.55 billion. Between June 29 and 30, it sold 1,363 Bitcoin, generating proceeds of approximately $80.8 million. From July 1 to 5, it sold an additional 2,225 Bitcoin, netting around $135.2 million. Financially, Strategy’s second-quarter book value of digital assets reached $49.67 billion, resulting in an unrealized loss of $8.32 billion. The company’s overall second-quarter results included an unrealized loss of $8.31 billion.

Last week, MicroStrategy cut its Bitcoin holdings by 3,588 coins to 843,775.

According to market sources, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings decreased by 3,588 coins last week, valued at approximately $225.6 million, bringing its total holdings to 843,775 BTC. No official explanation has been provided for the reduction in its Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin’s short-term price fell over 1.3%, with Strategy selling 3,588 BTC last week.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dropped more than 1.3% in the short term, falling below $62,000. On the news front, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC last week.

Smart money address 0x15a, dormant for months, has re-entered the market, opening a 40x long position worth $12.6 million in Bitcoin.

According to monitoring by OnchainLens, the smart money address 0x15a, which has been dormant for several months, deposited $1 million USDC into Hyperliquid and opened a 40x leveraged long position of 200 BTC, with the position valued at roughly $12.58 million. The address’s last on-chain activity occurred in March this year, and its historical cumulative profit from perpetual contracts stands at approximately $2.28 million.

Analysis: Bitcoin’s 365-day Sharpe ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, a metric that has repeatedly correlated with bear market bottoms historically.

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 28% year-to-date. Its 365-day rolling Sharpe Ratio once dropped to around -21, the lowest level since the end of 2022, and remains near -20 currently. The Sharpe Ratio gauges an asset’s risk-adjusted return performance. A negative value means investors have taken on higher volatility risk while actual returns are lower than risk-free assets like 10-year U.S. Treasuries. Against the current U.S. Treasury yield of approximately 4.45%, this metric reflects that Bitcoin’s risk-return performance over the past year has clearly worsened. However, CryptoQuant points out that historically, such extreme negative Sharpe Ratio levels often signal market selling pressure is nearly exhausted. Similar levels appeared near Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022, all followed by the start of a new upward cycle for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin address dormant for nearly 15 years shows unusual activity, tied to New York lawsuit over ownership of "sleeping bitcoins"

A Bitcoin address dormant for nearly 15 years recently processed its first transfer, sending 30 BTC worth approximately $1.88 million at current prices. Galaxy Research on-chain data shows the address, labeled "1KV47," had not moved any funds since receiving 30 BTC in August 2011, until it sent funds externally for the first time last Saturday local time. This address is one of 39,069 dormant Bitcoin addresses involved in a New York lawsuit. Plaintiff "Noah Doe" and two Wyoming-registered companies are seeking to claim ownership of Bitcoin in these long-inactive addresses under New York State’s abandoned property law. Sani, founder of analytics platform Timechain Index, noted this group of addresses holds roughly 3.7 million BTC, valued at around $234 billion, including an address widely believed to belong to Bitcoin’s creator Satoshi Nakamoto. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said activity in dormant addresses linked to the lawsuit has risen sharply recently: 31 addresses transferred 17,527 BTC in June, compared to just 5 addresses moving 4,834 BTC in February this year. However, the legal community generally views the lawsuit as having weak grounds. Last Friday local time, a defendant identifying as "John Doe 33" who claims control over one of the addresses filed a motion to dismiss the suit, arguing Bitcoin addresses are merely data strings and not entities that can be sued. Edwin Mata, CEO and lawyer at tokenization platform Brickken, stated that an address’s long inactivity alone does not prove asset abandonment. Under property law, establishing abandonment typically requires proof that the owner explicitly intended to relinquish their property rights; dormant addresses may stem from long-term cold storage, lost private keys, or holders choosing to hold assets long-term, so they do not sufficiently support the plaintiffs’ claims.

Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds, yet spot trading volume shrinks rapidly, with risks of long squeezes in derivatives accumulating.

Crypto analyst Murphy notes that as Bitcoin rebounded from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, its spot relative volume plummeted rapidly. A rebound unsupported by spot demand is unlikely to form the foundation of a trend reversal, often being merely a sentiment-driven recovery rally, so its sustainability demands close monitoring. On the positive front, the USDC/USDT exchange rate has retreated from 1.001 to 1.0006, signaling waning exit intentions and recovering trading activity. While major stablecoins on trading platforms still remain in net outflow, the outflow magnitude has continued to narrow, and this marginal improvement in funding conditions underpins the rebound’s continuation. However, the weakening of spot drivers means derivatives have gained relatively more weight. The 7-day average long premium for perpetual contracts has climbed steadily to $160,000 per hour, indicating taker buy orders have persistently pushed perpetual contract prices above spot levels. Open interest has declined somewhat but remains significantly higher than levels in February this year. The current long premium is still within a normal range, but as the rebound persists, the risk of a long squeeze will keep building. Once open interest rebounds again, fierce battles between bulls and bears will trigger faster and more violent volatility—a hidden risk that requires advance attention.

The crypto market posts a minor recovery, with Bitcoin holding steady above $63,000, and total crypto market capitalization rising 1% over the past 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, the cryptocurrency market has seen a minor recovery, with Bitcoin holding steady above $63,000 and Ethereum briefly crossing $1,800. The total crypto market capitalization has risen 1% over the past 24 hours, now standing at $2.249 trillion. BNB briefly broke through $590, while SOL exceeded $80. Leading altcoin gainers include: ALICE up 15.2% in 24 hours; TRB up 13.3%; RESOLV up 10.85%; PUMP up 8.7%; and tokens previously listed on Binance’s monitoring list such as TLM, VANRY, and SYN surged over 20%.

South Korean Bitcoin treasury firm Bitplanet has reached a partnership with Antalpha, with plans to introduce mining equipment worth 15 billion South Korean won.

South Korean bitcoin treasury firm Bitplanet has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with U.S.-listed company Antalpha, planning to introduce 15 billion won worth of bitcoin mining equipment and launch full-scale mining operations this month. Future bitcoin output will be recognized as operating revenue and managed as long-term financial assets. The first-phase equipment is projected to generate over 7 BTC monthly, totaling more than 80 BTC annually. The mining rigs will be deployed in overseas regions with competitive electricity costs, including Oman and Paraguay, adopting an overseas hosting and joint venture operational model.

Analysis: Bitcoin’s AHR999 bottom index drops to 0.32, approaching its historical low.

Analyst Gaah published an analysis noting that Bitcoin’s AHR999 index has fallen to 0.32, approaching its all-time low. The metric gauges the deviation of Bitcoin’s current price from its long-term fair value and is widely used to develop dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies. When the AHR999 index is below its "buy zone", it is typically viewed as a favorable long-term allocation opportunity, helping investors avoid chasing high prices during rapid rallies. Bitcoin is currently in a phase of bottoming out and attempting to reverse the bear market trend, with its overall risk-reward ratio now showing notable appeal.

Cooling Fed interest rate hike expectations drive Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold to extend their rally.

After Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that inflation risks are easing, markets are betting the U.S. Federal Reserve will delay further interest rate hikes, pushing up prices of Bitcoin, gold, and silver. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has held steady for now; traders expect the greenback to remain strong ahead of the release of the Fed’s FOMC meeting minutes, as they wait for more monetary policy cues. According to HTX market data, as of press time, Bitcoin’s spot price is $63,640.1, up 0.93% in 24 hours; Ethereum’s spot price stands at $1,786.6, with a 24-hour gain of 0.4%. Per Bitget market data, spot gold trades at $4,172.2, a 1.21% increase in the last 24 hours.

Analysis: Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has fallen into an extremely negative range, a level that historically often corresponds to its bottoming phase.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a post that Bitcoin’s (BTC) Sharpe Ratio has once again dropped below -20, entering extremely negative territory. While it has recovered slightly recently, historically this level typically aligns with periods of extremely bearish market sentiment. The Sharpe Ratio gauges investment returns relative to volatility and risk; a negative value indicates the current risk assumed outweighs the returns generated. As of press time, Bitcoin has posted three consecutive quarterly losses, with a 16.1% decline in the latest quarter. These extremely bearish phases often persist for weeks or even months, and are frequently accompanied by the formation of a new market bottom, paving the way for a subsequent market rebound. That said, this indicator reflects long-term trends and is not suitable as a short-term trading signal.

Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, potentially signaling another BTC purchase.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates on the Bitcoin Tracker, stating, "Bitcoin is digital energy." Following past patterns, Strategy typically discloses news of increasing its Bitcoin holdings the day after such related announcements are released.

Current funding rates on major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchanges show that bearish momentum for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) is easing, with market sentiment remaining neutral to slightly bearish.

According to Coinglass data, current funding rates on major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) crypto exchanges show that the bearish sentiment for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has weakened compared to earlier, but most platforms have not yet formed sustained bullish signals. Specifically, BTC funding rates on multiple platforms hover around the 0.0100% benchmark line, reflecting an overall neutral-to-weak pattern. For ETH, funding rates on multiple platforms have risen above the 0.005% threshold, with ETH’s long sentiment recovering slightly stronger than BTC’s, though no broad bullish signal has emerged yet. BlockBeats Note: Funding rates are fees set by crypto trading platforms to maintain the balance between perpetual contract prices and their underlying asset prices, typically applied to perpetual swaps. They function as a fund exchange mechanism between long and short traders; platforms do not collect this fee, instead using it to adjust the cost or return of holding contracts to keep contract prices aligned with underlying asset prices. A 0.01% funding rate is the benchmark. A rate above 0.01% indicates widespread bullish market sentiment, while a rate below 0.005% signals widespread bearish sentiment.