U.S. September CPI data will be released tonight, and rising inflation expectations may prompt the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate hikes.
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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September CPI data at 20:30 ET tonight. Analysts expect the headline CPI year-over-year rise to climb from 3.4% in August to 3.6%, with a month-over-month increase of 0.6%—the largest in nearly five months, driven mainly by a rebound in energy prices. Core CPI is projected to rise 2.5% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, down from the prior reading of 0.3%. This CPI print is the final inflation report ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 policy meeting. Data from the CME Group shows markets currently pricing in a roughly 17% probability of a Fed rate hike in October. If core CPI posts a 0.3% month-over-month rise, it could rekindle expectations for a rate hike this month; if it meets the 0.2% forecast, the Fed is likely to hold off on action, pushing any rate hike decision to December. Additionally, the U.S. will release PPI data on Thursday, with both CPI and PPI figures influencing market assessments of future inflation trends and the Fed’s policy path.
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