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Analysis: Bitcoin's on-chain profit structure nears the early stages of a bull market, though downside risks remain.

2026.09.09 19:10:57

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has stayed above the break-even line of 1 for three consecutive weeks since August 19, marking the longest such stretch since 2026, with the current reading at roughly 1.002. A SOPR above 1 indicates that BTC transferred on-chain is overall in a profitable state. On-chain analytics platform Checkonchain notes that during bear markets, price rebounds into profitable territory usually trigger sell-offs, while brief dips below the break-even line in bull markets often create dip-buying opportunities, and the current market structure is approaching the early recovery phase of a bull market. However, David Puell, portfolio manager at ARK Invest, argues Bitcoin still faces downside risks. For more conclusive evidence that the bear market has ended, SOPR needs to remain above 1 for a longer period, and BTC prices must form consecutive higher highs and higher lows.

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